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02 February 2026, 10:26

‘One match is all it takes.’ Expert warns of instant chaos from Baltics to Central Asia

MINSK, 1 February (BelTA) - All it would take along the arc from the Baltic states to Central Asia is to light a match, just give the signal, and chaos could erupt in an instant, Russian political scientist and Orientalist Karine Gevorgyan said in the latest episode of the V Teme (On Point) project on BelTA’s YouTube channel.
“I see the processes underway in Central Asia and Kazakhstan. I understand which parts of Kazakhstan could easily be ignited. I see what processes are going on, how one might bypass Russian communication lines. However, oil from Kazakhstan flows through Russian territory by gravity; that’s how the Earth’s crust is structured, so the energy costs are minimal. The CPC (Caspian Pipeline Consortium) was operational, but then the Ukrainians struck that very CPC and Chevron and ExxonMobil tankers. And Chevron is a company Trump favors. He doesn’t favor all American oil companies. So, igniting things there is absolutely no problem. Now, Vance [US Vice President] is flying to Baku and Yerevan, planning to hold negotiations,” said Karine Gevorgyan.

The expert added: “This entire arc from the Baltics to Central Asia, including Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - you could just light a match there. All it takes is the signal. At the very least, chaos, as they say, is ready at the click of a finger.”

“And here is our policy in the post-Soviet space. All our Russian institutions that were responsible for this, I believe, have failed it,” said Karine Gevorgyan, also noting that things are not simple in Abkhazia either.

“This means we need to bring this situation to a head, truly - a terrible end is better than endless terror. So, ‘Ukraine’ all along the perimeter, and we are at war,” said the political scientist. “The question is already being raised. It shouldn’t have been allowed to come to this, in my opinion. Was there no opportunity? There was. Because when the implementation of our president’s decrees is handled by managers whose education goes no further than an MBA, then this is what you get.”

“No matter how crazy Trump may seem, no matter how many problems he has, at least behind it all, you can see some strategy of maintaining control over communication lines. And we want to create communication lines without ensuring their security. We already invested in the Nord Streams. Where was the accompanying security agreement for those Nord Streams? How could terrorists who blew it up get near them? It shouldn’t have been like that. It’s very expensive, the losses are enormous. If you have such a costly asset, you are obligated to protect it. Yes, you’ll have to pay the security forces. But as we know, a penny-pincher pays twice,” added the political scientist. 
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