05 April 2026, 15:07

Did the Middle East conflict yield financial gains for Russia? An economist weighs in

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MINSK, 5 April (BelTA) – The conflict in the Middle East has yielded modest benefits to Russia, Mikhail Delyagin, Deputy Chairman of the Economic Policy Committee of the Russian State Duma and Doctor of Economics, said in a recent episode of BelTA’s V Teme [On Point] project.

Mikhail Delyagin began by emphasizing that it is simply wrong to count benefits earned at the cost of allied blood. Beyond that, he argued that the worldwide rise in oil prices stemming from the Middle East conflict has brought the Russian budget only a very modest and relative gain.

“Yes, global oil prices have risen, but what portion of that money will actually return to the country? Because liberal policy is geared toward maximizing capital outflows from Russia, and that is beyond debate at present,” the deputy noted with a hint of criticism. “Furthermore, the bulk of the money goes to traders, and most of those traders operate in an unofficial, so-called gray capacity. Those among them who are Russian have no incentives whatsoever to bring money back to Russia.”

Mikhail Delyagin also noted that Russia’s ability to boost exports is currently constrained, as port infrastructure and oil refining facilities have been damaged by attacks.

“So the real benefit comes from the increase in the mineral extraction tax, which is tied to global oil prices. But even that benefit is quite limited,” Mikhail Delyagin said.

At the same time, he stated that the Russian Federation’s budget does not lack money. “As of the start of the year, RUB5.2 trillion were sitting idly in accounts, with so little purpose for them that they were handed over to banks. The practice of funneling money to banks for circulation has been going on for several years now,” the economist pointed out. “Moreover, the budget includes the National Welfare Fund, which stands at RUB13.6 trillion. Of that amount, more than four trillion are in liquid money and gold; the remainder consists of various types of investments. But those investments are easily capitalized, i.e. they can be converted into cash. So the budget is effectively drowning in money. And all this talk about budget deficits and the need to cut spending has little to do with any actual shortage of funds. Rather, it is about strangling Russia into submission.”