11 February 2026, 15:56

‘Russia will still be there tomorrow’. What is the essence of Macron's halfway diplomacy?

French President Emmanuel Macron apparently believes so. It is otherwise difficult to interpret his calls for dialogue with Moscow and the construction of a new European security architecture while simultaneously attempting to prolong the Ukrainian conflict and inflict maximum damage on Russia .

Yesterday, the French leader made another round of high-profile statements in an interview with European media. Russia, according to Macron, is neither a friend nor an enemy, but rather a given. “It is right next to us,” the French president said of Russia. ‘Our geography isn’t going to change. Like it or not, Russia will still be there tomorrow," Macron stated.

And if that is the case, then dialogue with Russia is necessary, including on security matters. “And we will have to build a new security architecture in Europe with Russia,” the French leader said.

Where does this sudden epiphany come from? Macron answers with a question: “My reflection is very simple. Do we want to delegate this discussion to others?”

By “others” the French president means the United States, which has long been running the show in Europe with its sleeves rolled up. This isn't just about the “discussion” over Ukraine. In his interview, Macron speaks of the “Greenland moment”, U.S. trade tariffs, and Europe's dependence on U.S. LNG. According to the French leader, the U.S. President Donald Trump administration is “openly anti-European” and seeking the “dismantling” of the EU.

If we do nothing, within five years Europe we will have disappeared, the French president predicted.

Is Macron telling the truth? He does, but only half-truths. Just as he did in the pre-war years, when he publicly played the peacemaker and championed the Minsk agreements, while simultaneously, alongside Western allies, prepared for a proxy war in Ukraine. For those who may have forgotten, let us recall the revelations from one of the participants in this very act.

“The 2014 Minsk agreement was an attempt to give Ukraine time,” former German chancellor Angela Merkel said in December 2022. According to her, it was clear to everyone that the conflict in Ukraine had been frozen but not resolved. However, at that time, NATO countries were not able to provide Kiev with the level of support they did after 2022.

Today, Macron’s truth is that Europe is indeed in a state of shock. It is also true that the situation will continue to worsen if European countries fail to find a foothold for themselves. Macron is likely correct when he speaks of the U.S. desire to “dismember” the EU. Such is the nature of the United States, the world’s dominant power that divides, rules, and tolerates no competition. And it makes no difference who is at the wheel - Republicans or Democrats.

The Ukrainian conflict, it should be recalled, began under the administration of Democrat Joe Biden. So did the events leading up to the proxy war - the sharp increase in Western military supplies to Ukraine in the autumn of 2021, the intensification of shelling along the entire line of contact in Donbas, and the refusal of the USA and NATO to consider Russia’s proposals on security guarantees. The Biden administration was preparing to eliminate a competitor in the form of Russia, which dominated Europe’s hydrocarbon market and was actively advancing its military technologies. In this endeavor, European leaders, including Macron, rallied under the U.S. banner. Apparently failing to understand that, for the USA, the EU is just as much a competitor as Russia, and that the proxy war in Ukraine is a chance for the Americans to kill two birds with one stone.

It is also evident that the EU’s “birds” have by now begun to suspect as much. And it is entirely possible that Macron and some of his colleagues in the EU today fear that the United States will now address matters of critical importance to Europe not with its European allies, but with Russia. The Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi, from which Kiev’s European backers were excluded, are just the beginning.

“People are in despair. You don’t know anymore how far the Americans are willing to go,” Macron said. The strategy of flattery and concessions toward Trump has proven futile. “We’ve tried this strategy for months. It’s not working,” said the French president.

And, however paradoxical it may seem, the only country Europe can turn to in this situation is Russia. However, even here the European establishment faces a big “but”. Since his speech in Munich in 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been asking Western leaders the same question: are they ready to cooperate on the basis of the principles of indivisible and equal security for the West, for Russia, and for the whole world? For Moscow it is a fundamental question and if European leaders want to establish cooperation with Russia, they will have to answer it. At the same time, there will be no more taking anyone’s word for it.

It is unlikely that Macron has failed to grasp that. It is no coincidence that he has started talking about a security architecture in Europe “together with Russia.” But that is probably the limit of the French leader’s commitment to the truth. Macron understands perfectly well that achieving lasting peace would put an end to all his plans to profit from the military hysteria in Europe.

Since December 2025 the French president has been talking about the importance of dialogue with Russia, about the need to call Putin as soon as possible, and has sent his diplomatic adviser Emmanuel Bonne to Moscow. In the current shaky situation Macron is trying to maintain balance, clinging to the thin thread that connects him to Moscow. But he cannot pick up the phone and call the Russian leader because he is not ready to talk about ending the Ukrainian conflict, reducing the stockpile of strategic weapons, or about a new security architecture that would put an end to the insane militarization of Europe.

These matters are important to Moscow, but they do not match well Macron’s ambitious plans to improve France’s financial affairs through arms export, increase the political weight by promising Europeans protection under the French nuclear umbrella, and, in the process, trip up Germany, which perhaps needs to restore trade relations with Russia more than anyone else in the European Union.

It is unlikely that the French president wants war. But he wants peace only half-heartedly. For Macron peace means walking a tightrope where he can earn extra money by selling missiles, but on the condition that those missiles will not fly over the Champs-Elysees. The problem is that there are too many variables in Macron’s equation. It includes geopolitical processes in Europe and the world as well as interests of larger players — Russia and the USA — and competition in the arms market with London and now also with Germany, which is rapidly militarizing.

Amid this uncertainty the French president is looking for room to maneuver, glancing in Russia’s direction. In Moscow Macron’s vacillations have already been labeled “pathetic diplomacy”. To be honest, it’s hard to call it diplomacy at all. It may be called half-diplomacy at best.

By BelTA’s Vita KHANATAYEVA.