MINSK, 15 May (BelTA) – The World Bank expects a small increase in the real GDP in Belarus in 2018, BelTA learned from the World Bank country economist Kirill Gaiduk during the presentation of a regular World Bank Country Survey for Belarus on 15 May.
According to the country survey, Belarus' GDP is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2017 and by 1.2% in 2019.
In Q1 2017 the Belarusian economy demonstrated stabilization trends thanks to growing export. World Bank experts believe that a weak growth can be secured in 2018-2019 thanks to the gradual recovery of external demand. The stricter fiscal policy and the monetary management policy as well as the Russian government's financial promises will resolve the problems of domestic and foreign misbalances for some time. A number of positive steps designed to improve the business environment need to be complemented with complex measures to restructure the corporate sector, facilitate the liquidation of ineffective companies, and enable conditions for the emergence of new companies. These measures will help improve the competitive ability of the conventional sectors of the Belarusian economy, the World Bank stressed.
Young Chul Kim, World Bank Country Manager for Belarus, noted that the higher competitive ability of the conventional industries and the reorientation of the Belarusian economy towards higher export diversification will allow laying down the foundation for accelerated revenue growth. The goal will require measures meant to increase productivity by gradually reducing the ineffective usage of capital and labor. Belarus' capital — highly educated workforce and the advantageous geographical position — will further the country's integration into the global economy and transition to a steadier economic growth trajectory, he stated.
The World Bank drew attention to the risks connected with the dependence of the Belarusian economy on exporting refined oil products. “The Belarusian petrochemical industry has helped economic growth and supported domestic demand, however, the economy has turned out to be sensitive to volatile global oil markets and energy trade with Russia. Effective mechanisms to absorb external shocks are needed in this situation. By using oil duties to bolster fiscal buffers instead of financing additional expenses, Belarus will be able to defuse the negative influence of the export of oil products on the competitive ability of conventional industries, stressed the World Bank senior economist Karlis Smits.
Since 1992 the World Bank has lent $1.7 billion to Belarus for implementing various programs. At present the World Bank's investment portfolio in Belarus includes nine projects worth $973 million.
