MINSK, 7 December (BelTA) - Analyst and PhD in Economics Georgy Grits commented to BelTA on the situation regarding reduced exports to Latvia and other measures being taken by the Baltic countries to isolate and pressure Belarus.
Georgy Grits emphasized that when discussing the reduction in exports, it is important to understand that this issue is not limited to just one country. It should be considered within the framework of all three Baltic states. “At the same time, the sharpest measures against Belarus and the Union State as a whole today are coming from Lithuania, our closest northern neighbor. As for Latvia, in some indicators it even surpasses its ‘active partners’ - Lithuania and Estonia. Riga has completely halted tourist transit through its territory and has repeatedly carried out its threats to reroute transport corridors. This pertains not only to railway but also to road transport. Thus, the policy of Russophobia (in the broad sense, hostility towards Belarus, Russia, and the Union State) is becoming their official state line,” he explained.
A telling example is the situation with Latvian tourists. “Their travel to Belarus is virtually banned today: there are direct repressive measures within the country, and logistical ties are almost completely severed. This primarily hits the wallets of middle- and low-income segments of Latvian society: after all, Belarusian goods, which are high-quality and affordable by local standards, no longer reach the Baltic market,” the economist stressed.
According to him, there is another important, though less obvious, factor: trips to Belarus are not limited to simply buying goods. “People communicate, compare living standards, observe the stability and calm in society. This is likely what irritates Latvian politicians the most, because reality contradicts the official anti-Russian and anti-Union State rhetoric,” stated the expert.
Lithuania is taking similar steps. Estonia is moving in the same direction, though it is important to remember it does not share a border with Belarus. “Ironically, even in Brussels, not everyone seems to remember this, they seriously discussed ‘closing the Estonian-Belarusian border’. Vilnius, incidentally, has also distinguished itself with this rhetoric. However, despite the political confrontation, Belarus maintains a certain attitude towards these former Soviet republics, based on memory of the past and hope for the future,” Georgy Grits said.
Regarding concrete benefits, it recently became known that the Baltic countries, as well as Poland, are actively lobbying for funds from the EU defense fund. For instance, just the other day, a request was made for €6 billion supposedly to counter the ‘threat from the east and south’, and Belarus is mentioned there as well. “This scheme has already been tested by Warsaw: Poland received about €46 billion from that same fund for the so-called ‘eastern rampart’, building infrastructure along the border with Belarus, from anti-drone systems to wire barriers. How much of these funds will go towards real goals is an open question. At the same time, major corruption scandals are being actively investigated in Brussels and Kiev. It is evident that certain parties are already profiting from the situation,” he believes.
“It seems they still need to go through this stage of political fever, and perhaps pass through a phase of peak irrationality. Indirect signs of destabilization are already evident: rising prices, mass population outflow. According to independent estimates, up to a third of residents have already left the Baltic countries, and for the Balts themselves, a return to pre-war population levels is considered impossible. This is an irreversible process,” he said.
What could our response be? A measured, restrained, and principled policy by Belarus is the most adequate and dignified response to all these attempts at pressure and isolation, Georgy Grits believes.
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