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The U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran has been going on for four days. Tehran is retaliating with strikes against Israel and U.S. military bases in the Middle East. There are no signs of de-escalation, but there are objective concerns that the situation in the region could spiral out of control. The preconditions are in place: a strike against a nuclear facility in Natanz, statements by Middle Eastern countries about their right to retaliate against Tehran, and U.S. marines firing at a crowd of protesters in Karachi, Pakistan...
Aftershocks of the events in the Middle East are being felt around the world. Just look at the turmoil in global stock markets. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital oil and gas artery, and the suspension of LNG production in Qatar have sent hydrocarbon prices soaring. Meanwhile, European Union countries fear a new wave of migrants fleeing the war in the Middle East. BelTA’s review covers the latest developments.
What is happening in the Middle East?
The U.S. and Israeli military continue bombing Iran. Explosions rocked the capital city and other cities of the Islamic republic today. Meanwhile, the Israeli army announced the start of massive strikes against infrastructure facilities in Tehran.
The number of Iranians killed since the start of the bombing, including civilians, is already close to 800. A total of more than a 1,000 strikes in 153 areas of Iran have been recorded during this time.
The Israeli Air Force continued strikes against Lebanon. The strikes are targeting facilities belonging to the Shiite movement Hezbollah, which had previously attacked Israel in response to the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei. As many as 40 people have been killed and about 250 have been wounded as a result of the Israeli strikes against Lebanon since 2 March.
Iran fired several missile salvos at Israel today. Strikes were also carried out against American targets in the Persian Gulf countries. Part of the roof of the U.S. embassy in Riyadh collapsed due to a drone strike. Iran also hit strategic water reservoirs in Mesaieed, Qatar, and the Qatar Energy industrial complex in Rass Laffan. Against the backdrop of the missile attacks, explosions rocked the capitals of Qatar and Bahrain.
The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement that Tehran targets only military targets of the adversary. Iran had previously declared all U.S. bases in the Middle East to be legitimate targets. “Iran cannot reach American soil, this is why we have no choice but to attack any bases that are under U.S. jurisdiction,” the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.
Washington presumably already understands that its plan for a quick operation in Iran has not worked out. American mass media report that the United States’ missile stockpiles, including Tomahawk missiles, are depleted. President Donald Trump denies this information. In his words, the United States has virtually unlimited weapons stockpiles and can wage wars “forever.” At the same time, Trump himself has given reason to doubt his words. In a post on Truth Social, the U.S. president accused his predecessor Joe Biden of giving American weapons to Vladimir Zelensky for free. Trump compared Zelensky to the American showman and “king of deception” Phineas Barnum.
“Sleepy Joe Biden spent all his time and our country’s money giving everything to Ukrainian P.T. Barnum (Zelensky!). Hundreds of billions of dollars. And even though he gave away so much cutting-edge weaponry (for free!), he didn’t bother to replenish the stock,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Trump does not rule out the possibility of a ground operation in Iran. However, the likelihood of sending in ground troops seems doubtful, especially in a year of U.S. Congress elections where the success of the Republicans will largely depend on the approval ratings of Trump’s policies. Judging by the reaction of the American public and the wave of protests that has swept across the country, many Americans are opposed to bombing Iran.
The best outcome for the United States might be to get Middle Eastern countries to join the operation against Iran. There have already been reports in various media outlets that the United States is trying to persuade countries in the region to take action against Iran. However, Middle Eastern countries are so far only taking defensive action, intercepting Iranian missiles and drones over their territory.
The caution of the Persian Gulf countries is understandable. Their territories are within range of Iranian missiles unlike the United States, which is waging war in the other hemisphere of the globe. And unlike Israel the Gulf states do not see Iran as an existential threat.
Nevertheless, Middle Eastern states claim the right to retaliate against Iran. If that happens, the entire Middle East will be plunged into a large-scale armed conflict.
The tense situation remains in Pakistan and Iraq where the operation against Iran and the assassination of Khamenei have sparked mass protests. For example, in Karachi, Pakistan protesters tried to storm the U.S. consulate. Clashes ensued. U.S. Marines guarding the consulate opened fire on the protesters. Information about casualties or injuries is not yet available.
Against the backdrop of the escalating situation the U.S. Department of State has begun evacuating some diplomats and their families from embassies in Iraq, Bahrain, and Jordan. Warnings about the risk of terrorist attacks have been posted on embassy websites.
What do we know about the strike on nuclear facilities in Natanz?
The U.S. Air Force attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities (Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan) during the bombing of Iran in June 2025. During the current operation Natanz once again came under fire and, according to the IAEA, suffered damage.
“Based on the latest available satellite images, the IAEA can confirm recent damage to the entrance premises of Iran’s underground fuel enrichment plant in Natanz,” the organization said in a statement.
According to the IAEA, no radiation emissions have been detected.
Meanwhile, the Iranian city of Bushehr where an operational nuclear power plant is located is also under missile attack. According to local authorities, the nuclear power plant has not been damaged. Rosatom CEO Alexei Likhachev said that a strike on the Bushehr nuclear power plant, which stores 70 tonnes of nuclear fuel and 210 tonnes of spent fuel, would cause a regional catastrophe. He also said that 639 Russian employees remain at the plant and attempts are being made to evacuate them.
However, the risk of a nuclear catastrophe remains high amid ongoing air strikes. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi pointed it out when he spoke at a special session of the agency’s Board of Governors, which Russia had requested because of the strikes on the Islamic republic. He called on all sides in the conflict to show maximum restraint and prevent further escalation.
“In accordance with the objectives of the IAEA, as enshrined in its Statute, I call on all parties to exercise maximum restraint to avoid further escalation. Let me remind you once again of previous resolutions stating that armed attacks on nuclear facilities are unacceptable, as they could lead to the release of radioactive substances with serious consequences both within and beyond the borders of the state that has been attacked,” TASS quoted Rafael Grossi as saying.
What is happening on the world markets?
Events in the Middle East have driven up oil and gas prices. Qatar has suspended LNG production, and a number of oil companies have suspended their operations at fields in the Iraqi Kurdistan region. apart from that, Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which oil and LNG are transported from the Middle East.
On 3 March Brent crude oil futures exceeded $85 per barrel for the first time since July 2024. Gasoline prices have also risen. In the UK the cost of fuel has almost doubled since 28 February. In Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand and Sri Lanka kilometer-long queues have already formed at gas stations. People fear fuel shortages and, as a result, rising gasoline prices.
The price of natural gas on the European exchange has reached $785 per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time since January 2023. The increase in prices since the beginning of the day has reached 45%.
The increase in energy prices led to a sharp fall in European stock markets. “This is panic selling. This is fear of stagflation. The market underestimated the scale of this war,” Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays, told the Financial Times.
Bloomberg has made a bleak forecast for the European economy. Unlike India and China, which can purchase hydrocarbons from Russia, the European Union may face serious supply disruptions amid events in the Middle East. And if the conflict drags on, the EU economy will face another crisis, the agency believes.
Meanwhile, Norwegian Energy Minister Terje Oslund said that the European Union may reopen the issue of Russian gas import in light of the situation in the Middle East. “The EU has made it clear that it wants to free itself from Russian gas and oil, but very grave events took place in the last three or four days. Given the geopolitical situation, I think the discussions will resume,” Terje Oslund said.
TASS quoted Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian president’s special representative for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, as saying that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas will soon be rebuilding Nord Stream 2 with their own hands.
“Gas prices in Europe have risen by 97% over the week. Prices will be much higher. If you have any questions, ask Ursula, Kaja, and other Russophobic politicians. Soon they will start rebuilding Nord Stream 2 with their own hands,” Dmitriev said.
But it is not only natural gas and oil that worry Europeans. The conflict in the Middle East could trigger a new migration crisis in Europe. According to Politico, EU Commissioner for Internal Affairs and Migration Magnus Brunner has already held talks on this matter with Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan. The EU is getting ready to raise its migration preparedness level, step up cooperation with relevant UN departments, and tighten internal security controls.
By BelTA’s Vita Khanatayeva
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