05 March 2026, 12:00

Is a ground operation in Iran possible? Political scientist weighs in

Photo courtesy of Reuters

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MINSK, 5 March (BelTA) – The United States could muster a maximum of 100,000 special forces troops for a ground operation in Iran if they decide to invade the country, compared to a current contingent of only 70,000, political scientist and orientalist Karine Gevorgyan said in the latest episode of the V Teme [On Point] project on BelTA’s YouTube channel.

Regarding a ground operation in Iran, which US President Donald Trump has so far refrained from but has not ruled out, the political scientist discussed the type of army needed to invade the Islamic Republic. “The Americans themselves have a total of 70,000 special forces. Yes, Delta Force units have long been stationed at the American embassy in Yerevan; they’ve been there for a long time, even before Pashinyan came to power. There’s a large contingent there; some told me – between 1,000 and 1,500; it’s like a city within a city, in Yerevan. Recently, the Delta Force was also stationed in Baku in connection with the visit of [US] Vice President Vance. But that’s not enough, you see? Blackwater, as a private military contractor, is ready to participate; we see they’re paid well. And overall, I’ve come to the conclusion that this entire campaign and its preparations are not being financed from the Pentagon budget, at the very least. Because the Pentagon’s budget for 2026 is $900 billion, and these expenses weren’t foreseen,” the political scientist explained.

She noted that the US is trying to incite the Kurds against Iran, using them as infantry that it wouldn’t mind sacrificing: “They’ve transported at least 25,000 ISIS fighters, banned in Russia, from Kurdish areas. Apparently, they’re counting on this infantry.”

“They clearly want to drag Türkiye into this operation, but, firstly, Erdoğan is a rather experienced leader and understands that being a tool in their hands is dangerous for him and the country. But secondly, when the Iranians deployed a contingent of 150,000 troops on the border with Türkiye, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, he so brazenly said that he would also deploy a similar contingent, the third field army, but only 40,000 troops. So, the Turks don’t have enough either. Well, essentially it’s limited to these 70,000 special forces,” the orientalist said.

The political scientist noted that even factoring in mercenaries and Kurdish fighters, the total would still only amount to around 100,000. “But that is still insufficient. What can the Iranians bring to bear in response? They undoubtedly have a larger contingent at their disposal. Therefore, I suspect that localized, highly damaging strikes in Iran’s border regions are a distinct possibility. In fact, they are already underway,” the orientalist said.