MINSK, 24 March (BelTA) – There is no large-scale conflict in Ukraine's southeast now. The statement was made by Mikhail Pogrebinsky, Director of the Kiev Institute of Political Research and Conflictology, during the roundtable session held at premises of the Philosophy and Social Sciences Department of the Belarusian State University on 24 March to discuss the Minsk agreements on Ukraine, BelTA has learned.
“Positional actions are being activated now… The frontline remains the same. It means that there is no large-scale military conflict,” said the expert. Mikhail Pogrebinsky admitted that ceasefire is constantly violated and provocations happen all the time. According to the expert, the Minsk negotiation process that is meant to resolve these problems is slowed down by the unwillingness of the current Ukrainian government to honor the agreements and Europe's lack of effort in this matter.
The expert also spoke about elections in certain parts of Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast. In particular, he noted that the European political elite encourages Ukraine and representatives of the self-declared people's republics of Donetsk and Lugansk to come to terms on the elections by July. It is a very important point in time. It is then that the European Union will decide on whether sanctions against Russia should be extended or not.
In his opinion, for now the Donetsk side of the conflict and the Kiev side set unworkable conditions before each other. It slows down the organization of the local elections. The fact that the elections are likely to place in power political parties different from those, which are in Kiev at the moment, is another factor. “Even if the elections are organized without a hitch in compliance with all the OSCE ODIHR rules,” noted Mikhail Pogrebinsky. In his words, if such elections indeed take place, the configuration of the conflict will be different. Kiev will not able to claim that it fights Russian aggression in the Donbass area. The negotiations will enter a different dimension: a compromise inside Ukraine will be sought.
The political analyst said he believes that individual parts of Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast should be given broader authority in the parliament so that they could block Ukraine's accession to NATO, for instance. It is very difficult to accomplish in Ukraine but the European side of the negotiation process has not even attempted to change the situation to that effect. “I expect a deadline, a point in time when the decision on holding the elections [in individual parts of Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast] will be made,” said the expert. “It will drastically change the context of the situation. Things are going in that direction. It seems to me that the Minsk process is realizing its overarching goal that way.”
