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"On Point"
MINSK 31 January (BelTA) – The core challenge facing U.S. President Donald Trump lies in Iran’s geostrategic position, according to Russian political scientist and Orientalist Karine Gevorgyan. She shared this analysis in the latest episode of the V Teme (On Point) project on BelTA’s YouTube channel, commenting on the American leader’s statement about a “massive Armada” moving toward Iran.
“According to West Asian media, there is a significant concentration of American military troops and weapons around Iran. This includes Jordan, where we saw some notable presence, particularly since an American military transport plane landed in Baku, a somewhat unexpected move. The Americans have also withdrawn from all their bases in Iraq, except for Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan indicating activity there as well. In addition, there is an aircraft carrier and its accompanying strike group,” Karine Gevorgyan said.
The political scientist noted that Donald Trump expressed hope Tehran would come to the negotiating table and conclude a “fair and equitable” deal, implying a complete renunciation of nuclear weapons. Iran, in turn, will not agree to this. “Iranians have their own culture. Few people fully understand what an Iranian bazaar is. It’s not just a marketplace with all the customary ethics of deal-making, it’s also an intellectual club. That’s how it has always been historically,” the Orientalist explained.
“Trump’s whole problem lies in Iran’s advantages, in its geostrategic position,” the political scientist continued. “Trump has returned us to classical geopolitics. And Iran is the heart of Asia; it extends both east and west, I mean toward Central Asia and, across the South Caucasus toward the Black Sea, which in principle offers very attractive logistical possibilities for Iran.”
Karine Gevorgyan highlighted that a direct air corridor between Iran and Russia has been established over the Caspian Sea. “And no one hid that military transport planes (Russian, but to a greater extent Chinese) have been landing in Iran routinely. It is assumed that Iran’s air defense system has been strengthened as much as possible, and that electronic warfare systems are capable of jamming key signals. The People’s Republic of China, at the very least, and, judging by various data, Russia as well, jointly provide satellite intelligence to relevant Iranian services. I don’t think there should be any doubt about that,” she said.
She also pointed to a shift in Türkiye’s position regarding support for Iran: “Suddenly Türkiye, which previously signaled that it didn’t want a strike on Iran, has begun arresting Iranian spies, which suggests the Turkish authorities were somehow intimidated by this American show of force or, at a minimum, made a specific decision for themselves.”
“Who is categorically against it is Saudi Arabia, and to a lesser extent the Emirates. Both of them host British and American surveillance bases, radars, and so on. Although the Emirates say they will not open their airspace for strikes against Iran, the Iranians do not believe this and state: ‘We are all neighbors, we are friendly toward them, but we will be forced to respond if something is launched from their territory’, including Qatar, where there is an American base, as well as Saudi Arabia. In general, most of this military power, oddly enough, is concentrated in Qatar,” concluded the political scientist.
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