MINSK, 30 December (BelTA) – The economic activity in the CIS countries stabilized in Q3 2015 as its decline slowed in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, reads the CIS Macromonitor published by the Analytical Unit of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).
"The magnitude of the fall in the aggregate GDP of the CIS countries decreased in all three economies as against 2014 on the back of the growth in GDP or a slight decline as compared with Q2 2015, taking into account the seasonality," analysts said. Thus, they conclude, the economic activity in the region stabilized as its decline stopped in the countries that were first affected by the recession.
Experts cited some data. For example, the aggregate GDP in the CIS countries contracted by 3.9% in Q3 2015 over the same period in 2014. In Q2 2015 the decline was 4.4% as against the same period a year earlier.
According to the EDB, the magnitude of the GDP fall in the countries with a diversified structure of exports (Belarus, Ukraine and Uzbekistan) remained highly significant, amounting to 6.4%, but the fall slowed down as compared with Q2 2015 when it was 11.8%. The size and dynamics of the fall reflected trends in the economy of Ukraine where the internal armed conflict subsided and first signs of the post-war recovery in economic activity emerged.
According to another study, a new round of the fall in oil prices in the middle of the year contributed to the increased pressure on the currencies of the CIS countries. In the context of the deteriorated external background the central banks changed their policies in the third quarter making the national currencies more flexible.
"According to the baseline scenario for the development of the economic situation in the world, the pace of the economic growth in the developed countries, particularly in the United States, the eurozone and Japan will be maintained, the economic growth in China will stabilize, which would be facilitated, among other things, by a more flexible exchange rate policy of the Central Bank of that country," experts believe. Dynamics of oil prices, in their view, would depend on the growth of exports from the OPEC countries (including Iran, after the sanctions are lifted) and the reduction of the production in the fields with relatively high cost of development, particularly in the United States. "We expect that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2016 would be within $40-50 per barrel. In 2015 the aggregate GDP in the CIS countries will shrink by 3.5-4% but will return to growth in 2016. The growth will be about 1% as against 2015,” the EDB Analytical Unit predicted.
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is an international financial institution founded by Russia and Kazakhstan in January 2006 with the mission to facilitate the development of market economies, sustainable economic growth, and expansion of mutual trade and other economic ties in its member states. The EDB's authorized capital exceeds $1.5 billion. The member states of the Bank are the Republic of Armenia, the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, and the Republic of Tajikistan.
