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12 March 2026, 18:03

How likely is nuclear escalation in Middle East? Expert weighs in

 MINSK, 12 March (BelTA) - Military analyst Aleksandr Alesin gave his take on the likelihood of the Middle East conflict escalating into a nuclear one in a recent episode of the V Teme [On Point] project on BelTA’s YouTube channel.
 “Israel is a small country that has little strategic depth. If, after the defeat of Israel’s air defense systems, Iran launches an attack as powerful as the one at the start of hostilities, then a very large number of military and civilian infrastructure facilities in Israel will be hit,” Aleksandr Alesin said. “Things could reach such a critical state that some hotheads in Israel might use nuclear weapons.” At the same time, the military expert believes that such a scenario seems unlikely for various reasons. Nuclear weapons are effective when used against large, single targets, while Iran’s military potential is dispersed throughout the country. Thus, even the use of tactical nuclear weapons would not be able to neutralize it.

Another important factor to consider when using nuclear weapons is their impact on the environment. Radioactive contamination could spread beyond the territory of Iran if Israel decides to carry out nuclear strikes. “If you take into account the wind rose and sea currents, the use of nuclear munitions could lead to severe radioactive contamination not only in Iran, but also in those countries that are not participating in the military conflict,” Aleksandr Alesin emphasized.
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