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"On Point"
MINSK, 13 August (BelTA) – Proxy wars are nothing new, but when proxy forces become exhausted and face defeat, their sponsors face a dilemma: intervene directly and risk total failure, or admit defeat, Ukrainian lawyer and blogger Tatiana Montyan said in a new episode of the V Teme [On Point] project on BelTA’s YouTube channel.
“War is war: you can win and you can lose. No one fights for free. When forces are roughly equal and the frontline barely moves, with massive destruction, even a minor breakthrough, like breaching fortified lines, changes everything. Once the tide turns, the West faces a dilemma: if they do not intervene, they face a humiliating defeat; if they do, they risk a total defeat,” Tatiana Montyan stated.
She emphasized that proxy wars have always existed: “I think even Neanderthals practiced it. But anyone who starts such a war, who encroaches upon foreign canonical territory, stages Maidains, hands our ‘cookies’ should think about how it ends years later.”
Tatiana Montyan noted that the situation is growing increasingly difficult for Kiev and the West. “As Kolomoisky [Ukrainian oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, now in SBU custody] once said: Life is like a supermarket, you can put whatever you want in your trolley but at some stage you have to pay for it. Now that they are approaching that checkout and realizing payment is due, their rhetoric has changed.”
Tatiana Montyan pointed out that Donald Trump’s inner circle is already urging non-involvement in Ukraine: “Many tell him: ‘This is not your war, stay out. If Europe wants to fight, let them buy our weapons and fight until they collapse.’ Trump seems to want to step back, limiting himself to arms sales. But Europe has no choice – they are in too deep, ramping up arms production, modernizing armies and drafting more people. They are preparing to fight Russia directly once the proxies are exhausted and the front collapses.”
In her view, the West should have considered this earlier “when they staged the coup in Ukraine, or worse, failed to stage one in Belarus. Russia suffered brutally: lives lost, cities destroyed, millions displaced, an ecological disaster and drought in Donbas. But the West also paid a heavy price. And the reputational damage if they lose will be catastrophic. For them, it is ‘to be or not to be’ and it is their own fault, as Lukashenko hinted [in his TIME interview].”
“War is war: you can win and you can lose. No one fights for free. When forces are roughly equal and the frontline barely moves, with massive destruction, even a minor breakthrough, like breaching fortified lines, changes everything. Once the tide turns, the West faces a dilemma: if they do not intervene, they face a humiliating defeat; if they do, they risk a total defeat,” Tatiana Montyan stated.
She emphasized that proxy wars have always existed: “I think even Neanderthals practiced it. But anyone who starts such a war, who encroaches upon foreign canonical territory, stages Maidains, hands our ‘cookies’ should think about how it ends years later.”
Tatiana Montyan noted that the situation is growing increasingly difficult for Kiev and the West. “As Kolomoisky [Ukrainian oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, now in SBU custody] once said: Life is like a supermarket, you can put whatever you want in your trolley but at some stage you have to pay for it. Now that they are approaching that checkout and realizing payment is due, their rhetoric has changed.”
Tatiana Montyan pointed out that Donald Trump’s inner circle is already urging non-involvement in Ukraine: “Many tell him: ‘This is not your war, stay out. If Europe wants to fight, let them buy our weapons and fight until they collapse.’ Trump seems to want to step back, limiting himself to arms sales. But Europe has no choice – they are in too deep, ramping up arms production, modernizing armies and drafting more people. They are preparing to fight Russia directly once the proxies are exhausted and the front collapses.”
In her view, the West should have considered this earlier “when they staged the coup in Ukraine, or worse, failed to stage one in Belarus. Russia suffered brutally: lives lost, cities destroyed, millions displaced, an ecological disaster and drought in Donbas. But the West also paid a heavy price. And the reputational damage if they lose will be catastrophic. For them, it is ‘to be or not to be’ and it is their own fault, as Lukashenko hinted [in his TIME interview].”
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