The scale of Poland's spending on armaments is impressive. More and more Russophobic generals and politicians want to directly draw Poland into the conflict in Ukraine and also to expand the conflict zone. At the same time, contrary to the statements of armchair generals, ordinary Poles believe that Ukraine should start negotiations with Russia to end the war. Tomasz Szmydt analyzes the current situation in his op-ed.
While the Belarusian president constantly emphasizes (including in a recent interview with Evgeny Popov) the desire for peace and normalization of relations with Ukraine and all the neighbors of Belarus, Polish generals, whose entire combat experience is reduced to armchair political intrigues, exercises and "peacekeeping" missions in the countries of the third world, make public statements that Poland's entry into the war with Russia is only a matter of time. Such a war for them is tantamount to an armed conflict with the Republic of Belarus as the closest ally of the Russian Federation.
Thus, a retired Polish general, former commander of the Polish Land Forces and former commander of the Polish Military Contingent in Iraq, Waldemar Skrzypczak, once said: "It will take Poland two or three days to seize Belarus." On the air of the Polish TV channel Polsat he openly proclaimed: “Poland must prepare for an uprising in Belarus because it will happen. We must be ready to support the divisions that will lead the operation against [Belarusian President Aleksandr] Lukashenko."
Moreover, in his latest analysis for wprost.pl, Waldemar Skrzypczak even proposed to set up the Belarusian Legion, by analogy with the Ukrainian military unit. This legion, in accordance with the agreement by Donald Tusk and Vladimir Zelensky signed in Warsaw, will be created, armed and trained in Poland at the expense of Polish taxpayers.
“We are not direct participants in the war in Ukraine. We are supporting a neighbor at war as part of a coalition. We provide assistance, among other things, by training the Ukrainian Legion. Why not start forming the Belarusian Legion?" the retired general asked.
According to him, sooner or later the Belarusians fighting for Ukraine will return to their homeland. "I hope that this will cause an uprising in Belarus, Lukashenko is afraid of this," Mr. Skrzypczak said. According to him, Poland is ready to help these soldiers, since they are now fighting for Ukraine. "We need to be ready to support those troops who will conduct an operation against Lukashenko. We have reasons to help them, as we help Ukrainians," he said.
At the same time, in his public statement, the retired general claimed that Belarus had allegedly already attacked Poland. Of course, he does not give any information about how exactly this happened. However, it should be noted that Poland itself has taken a number of hostile steps against Belarus; back in 2020, its special services were actively involved in an attempt to overthrow the legitimate government; the Polish government actively supports all agents, trains mercenaries, including for sabotage activities on the territory of Belarus.
Although Waldemar Skrzypczak is known for his Russophobia and erroneous analytics, such statements should be paid attention to. The number of such Russophobic generals and politicians in Poland is growing. It is they who want not only to directly draw Poland into the conflict in Ukraine, but also to expand the conflict zone to include Belarus.
But will the Polish government follow the path of escalation? Recently, my Moscow friend Tigran Meloyan and I analyzed the development of the Polish Armed Forces and their modernization. The scale of expenditure and the type of military equipment purchased and ordered indicate that it is not intended for defense, but for potential attack.
However, more and more Poles believe that Ukrainians should start negotiations with the Russians to end the war, as evidenced, for example, by the survey conducted by the United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska on 26-28 July 2024.
"In your opinion, is it time for Ukraine to start peace talks with Russia?" the survey asked the Poles.
18% of survey participants answered "definitely yes", another 36.5% noted "rather yes". Thus, 54.5% of respondents are in favor of Kiev and Moscow starting peace talks. By the way, voters of the ruling coalition have a positive attitude to peace negotiations more often than the opposition.
At the same time, 7.1% of respondents believe that Ukraine should definitely not start negotiations, another 19% of respondents answered "rather not". The option "I don't know / it's hard to say" was chosen by 9.4% of respondents.
According to the authors of the survey, "Poles are getting more and more tired of the war in Ukraine." Apparently, not only the Poles have this fatigue. So, this month, the delegations of Ukraine and Russia planned to meet in Qatar to discuss the terms of an agreement to stop mutual attacks on energy infrastructure. However, according to the Washington Post, the attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Kursk Oblast disrupted the negotiations.
According to America's Newspapers, one of the Russian diplomats involved in the preparation of these negotiations said that Ukraine was escalating the conflict. The Kremlin is reportedly not disrupting the talks but it is putting them on hold. This is confirmed by Russian President Vladimir Putin who made it clear that there will be no negotiations with Ukraine.
“By attacking Kursk Oblast, Ukraine did not get the results it hoped for” - a colleague from the Gentlemen’s League Telegram channel rightly summed up. The military goals of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not clear, since the only logical goal was to take control of the Kursk nuclear power plant, but they never did. If Kiev planned to improve its negotiating position, it achieved the opposite result: now Russia does not want to negotiate at all.
Another interesting piece of the puzzle is the revelations by August Hanning, the Director of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. He claims that the attack on Nord Stream was carried out by the Poles and Ukrainians. It should be noted that the information was provided by a credible person, since August Hanning worked for many years in intelligence and, presumably, still has access to this kind of information. It is assumed that an agreement on the attack was reached during a direct conversation between Presidents Duda and Zelensky. This may be another stage to disclose the plan to directly draw Poland into the war in Ukraine. Because such information never appears in the media accidentally.
The conclusions from this brief review are not overly optimistic. The chances of negotiations on Ukraine are now practically non-existent. The Polish leadership, supported by its generals and pushed by the United States (that has already provoked Russia to start the SMO) is trying to draw Belarus into the conflict too. And yet, the great Polish people, who have experienced the horrors of war more than once, categorically disagree with their government and do not want to die for the interests of multinational corporations and jobs for Ukrainians in Poland. Ordinary citizens do not want war, they want peace, and this is the only hope for Poland.
I would like to end this piece with the words that a Pole threw at Waldemar Skrzypczak: "Put on your uniform and go to your three-day war! Do not drag the Poles in this!"
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