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27 November 2025, 17:06

‘Trump plan’ for Ukraine could have been ‘Obama plan’. What Lukashenko offered the USA ten years ago

The world is discussing a plan for Ukraine proposed by the team of U.S. President Donald Trump. The main points of this plan were discussed by the presidents of Belarus and Russia, Aleksandr Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin, during a bilateral meeting in Bishkek. They agreed that this document could serve as a good basis for negotiations.
Ten years ago the Belarusian head of state had urged the United States then led by President Barack Obama to join the process. In this piece we will recall the key statements made by Aleksandr Lukashenko regarding the proposals from the United States and the opportunities that were missed.

The president spoke about the proposed U.S. peace plan in his address at the CSTO summit, expressing both his own position and that of his colleagues. “We support the efforts of Vladimir Putin and the Russian Federation in terms of responding to the U.S. proposal for Ukraine settlement, for a peace deal. We very much hope this will happen,” he said. “If the United States act as diplomats and true lawyers, this treaty will be agreed upon, as the main points are already coordinated,” the Belarusian leader stated.

Aleksandr Lukashenko pointed out that the ball is now in Ukraine's court, and that certain forces in Europe need to abandon confrontation. “Given the current situation on the front lines, I believe Ukraine will have to agree to this peace plan; otherwise, it risks losing its statehood entirely,” the president said.

The Belarusian head of state commented on this topic in more detail at the request of journalists. More on that below, but first, let us recall that for the past decade Aleksandr Lukashenko has repeatedly stated that without the direct involvement of the United States, it would be difficult or almost impossible to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. This is especially true since, as it turned out, not all members of the Normandy Format negotiated in good faith in Minsk in 2015.  Thus, a full decade was lost before the emergence of the “Trump Plan”, a decade with a terrible cost of hundreds of thousands of human lives.

“As I stated yesterday, if this is necessary (and now is the perfect time to correct the past shortcomings of the Normandy Format, when the Europeans participated without the U.S.), then the most reasonable course of action is to return to the 2015 negotiation framework. If you agree, then you are more than welcome to do so,” Aleksandr Lukashenko told journalists.
BelTA’s journalists searched through the archives and found statements by the head of state on this matter, which now sound almost prophetic. Although, let's be honest, making sound political decisions doesn't require prophecy but experience and, above all, will.

So, just a month and a half after the Normandy Format negotiations and the signing of the Minsk Agreements (11-12 February 2015), Aleksandr Lukashenko stated in an interview with Bloomberg in late March 2015: "To put it briefly: I would not want this to be the calm before the storm. I really would not want that. I say this because there are certain concerns or, I would even say, certain trends, facts and factors that suggest that peace in Ukraine might still be a long way off.”

He also outlined the role the United States should have played for the sake of peace back then: “What concerns me most is that the United States was not openly involved in this process. I believe that stability in Ukraine is impossible without the Americans. If the Americans want peace and stability here, they must immediately join this process. The United States plays a decisive role, both in terms of influencing Ukraine’s internal political dynamics and in terms of sitting down at the table and negotiating with Russia over Ukraine. This is extremely important.”

Now, let us return to what the president of Belarus said on 27 November 2025, on the sidelines of the CSTO summit, and pose a rhetorical question: was he in any way wrong ten years ago? Therefore, it is undoubtedly worthwhile to pay close attention to what Aleksandr Lukashenko is saying now.

How does Lukashenko assess Trump’s plan and what does he propose to spell out in detail?

The head of state said that the day before, in Bishkek, he had a lengthy discussion on this topic with the Russian president. “As I understand it, both he and I see this as a preliminary version, if I may put it that way, an unofficial one. Once it is transmitted to the Russians through official channels, then we can talk about specific matters,” the Belarusian leader said. “But today I’ve said that the plan is workable. And Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin] acknowledges that it provides a good basis for negotiations.”

At the same time, the head of state pointed out that the plan was drafted hastily: “I hope the Trump team will not take offense, but the plan was prepared in haste. I wouldn't say it was written entirely offhand, but in a hurry. It needs to be presented in a clear and concise way, with every detail spelled out precisely. If territorial issues are to be resolved, then everything must be specified down to the meter, the kilometer. It must include specifying the exact location of troops, who should be present and who should not.”

“Everything must be detailed to the last point. Broad interpretation would later allow each side to construe certain provisions in its own way. That is why everything must be absolutely specific,” the Belarusian leader emphasized.
“We will continue to reflect on these issues. Ahead lies major and difficult work. There is much involved: the Zaporozhie [nuclear power] plant, Russia’s gold and foreign currency reserves… Everything has been taken into account [in the plan], including U.S. interests. Trump’s touch as an economist is evident there. I will not go into specifics,” the president added.

Why does Trump deserve credit?

According to Aleksandr Lukashenko, overall the Americans have carried out tremendous work. The head of state also commented on remarks by experts and journalists who claim that the United States, for example, took Russia’s demands into account, while Ukraine’s were not. In this regard, the president noted that Donald Trump not only met with Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, but also held numerous meetings with Vladimir Zelensky and European leaders.

“Do you think they just sat down for tea? Trump and his team carried out thorough, substantive work: with the Ukrainians, with the Europeans, and with the Russians. Credit must be given to Trump in this regard. So to say that Russia’s views and positions were taken into account, while Ukraine’s were not, is simply wrong,” the president said.
 
He noted that the issue lies elsewhere: Russia proved more willing to negotiate than Ukraine.

Is the Belarusian president optimistic about a swift peace?

The head of state indeed believes that the conflict in Ukraine is nearing its end. “I believe it now more than ever,” he said in response to one of the questions.

The president also cautioned: “However, this is a war. At any moment, an unforeseen development can overturn the entire situation. That is the nature of war; it is a profoundly critical period for any society and country. Therefore, we cannot afford to relax. Both sides must constantly remain fully informed and engaged with developments.” 

Why does Lukashenko say that European politicians do not want peace?

At the summit, the president cited specific examples of European Union militarization, pointing to the growing military ambitions of Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states. European countries are effectively shifting their economies to a war footing by increasing defense investments and arms production, all while continuing to supply weapons to Ukraine.

Further examples demonstrate a reluctance to pursue peace. For instance, while the United States proposed capping the Ukrainian armed forces at 600,000 troops, the European Union insisted on 800,000. Aleksandr Lukashenko highlighted this stark disparity by comparing it to Poland’s army, which, despite a stronger economy, currently numbers only around 200,000 personnel. How Ukraine is expected to sustain even 600,000 troops is a big question, yet Europeans are demanding an even larger force of 800,000.

“Well, people like that [in the EU] are going out of their way trying to find fault with it. So, the issue is not the content of this draft peace plan from the European perspective. The issue is that they do not want this peace. I simply do not understand why they need a war. They will not win it. They say the British are not acting in good faith. I think they will come to their senses,” stated Aleksandr Lukashenko.

“This war must be stopped. I think there will be no winner. That would be a catastrophe. And if there is a winner, it will not be the European Union, especially if the United States turns away from them,” the head of state said.

What is Zelensky's main problem?

Speaking about Vladimir Zelensky, Aleksandr Lukashenko remarked that if he had followed advice at the start of the hostilities, the current situation would never have arisen. “Had Ukraine implemented the Minsk agreements, there would have been no war. Ukraine would have remained within the borders it desires, those of 1991. But if Volodya Zelensky wants to face reality, I will once again, having been right back then, not give advice but simply state what I see. If you want Ukraine to remain within its current borders (given the realities on the front), you must negotiate. Do not undermine the negotiation process,” the Belarusian leader urged.

“If there are issues you cannot agree on… From this proposal I did not see anything that could not be agreed upon. If, for example, there is some demilitarized zone, fragments here and there in Donbass, then leave that for later. But stop the war, where other people’s children are dying. That is Zelensky’s main problem. He must keep this in mind. And most importantly, he will lose the country,” Aleksandr Lukashenko said.
Vladimir Zelensky might still find a place in the world for himself and his family. But what will millions of Ukrainians do… “So think, based on the real situation, how to preserve what you have. You have everything: access to the sea, Odessa, Nikolaev. But that may be lost in a moment. Therefore everything must be weighed carefully, and a balanced decision taken,” the Belarusian leader stated.
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