How Lukashenko, Putin reached unprecedented level of strategic partnership 

Last December, Belarus and Russia concluded an interstate treaty on security guarantees within the framework of the Union State. It was signed by Aleksandr Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin. The countries did not delay the ratification of the document. In March the treaty came into force as the heads of state exchanged the instruments of ratification during the official visit of the Belarusian president to Russia. Why did the two countries sign the treaty only now and what obligations does it impose on the parties? Who will be protected by the “nuclear umbrella”? Who will have the “red button” and how will Belarus and Russia counter sanctions and respond to threats and aggression? In the new episode of BelTA’s YouTube project “After the Fact: Lukashenko’s Decision” we have studied the document and here’s what we’ve learned. 

How did Russia extend its ‘nuclear umbrella’ to Belarus?

The Union State is a living organism, and its flexibility is its strong point. This format of bilateral relations, which may have no analogues in the world, makes it possible, depending on the circumstances, to test new methods of joint work. 

The news about Belarus and Russia’s plans to sign a new security treaty made waves. After Russia updated its nuclear doctrine, everybody grew very curious about the security cooperation between the two states. According to the updated doctrine, the Russian nuclear umbrella now clearly extends to Belarus. In other words, Moscow now equates an armed aggression against Minsk with an aggression on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia itself. 

"Belarus needs a “nuclear umbrella” to keep “rain” away. It means the rain will not come at all. That's what this “nuclear umbrella” is all about. No one wants to go to war against a nuclear country,” Aleksandr Lukashenko told the media in janaury of this year. “In terms of security, this is the most important avenue of relationship with President Putin and with Russia. Most important! Every time we converse or meet we discuss these issues. No topics are off-limits in this area and all others in relations with Russia” 

Why did Belarus and Russia sign the security treaty? 

The new wording of the Russian nuclear doctrine is the best security guarantee that a nuclear-armed state can offer to a non-nuclear state. Why then do countries need a new treaty? Formally, security guarantees within the framework of the Union State are similar to the mutual obligations of NATO members.

 “Initially there was an idea of security guarantees provided by Russia to Belarus, but we live in the Union State, and since we are partners, reliable allies and brothers, the guarantees should be mutual. This is the spirit of the treaty,” said Belarusian Minister of Foreign Affairs Maksim Ryzhenkov.

National security expert Aleksandr Tishchenko noted that the treaty on security assurances is the result of a long journey in bilateral relations. "Everything must be done at the right time. This is the culmination of a long and grueling journey. It took us a long time to become a close-knit team: we were ripped apart, and had to heal, to recover. The treaty was adopted when we were going through the most difficult time. But everything worked,” he said,

In December 2024, Aleksandr Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin approved the Security Concept of the Union State. The document was necessitated by significant changes in the military and political environment and the social and economic situation in Eastern Europe, including in the Union State, as well as by the sanctions piled up by the West and an unprecedented information warfare against the states-parties to the Union State.

“The recent developments make us pay special attention to the defense capabilities of our states. With the signing of the Union State Security Concept and the interstate treaty on security guarantees, we are reaching an unprecedented level of strategic alliance and coordination in defense. This will help us defend the territorial integrity of Belarus and Russia, preserve sovereignty and independence, and, most importantly, guarantee a peaceful life for the citizens of both states. 

But our intention to sign this treaty has had a strong emotional effect on our 'partners' in the West, as you call them. This is probably not a bad thing: they finally paid attention,” Aleksandr Lukashenko said after signing these documents.

Who controls nuclear weapons in Belarus and Russia?

But let's return to the treaty on security guarantees. It is regarded as a unique document. "This is the first normative document that says that the two states have each other’s back and guarantee each other's security, if necessary and upon request. We do not view anyone as a potential enemy and aggressor. But we are ready to defend our national interests," State Secretary of the Security Council Aleksandr Volfovich stressed.
The treaty defines mutual commitments to defend, protect sovereignty, independence and constitutional order of Russia and Belarus, integrity and inviolability of territories and external border of the Union State using all available forces and means.

Does that mean that each president now has his own "red button"? It’s hush-hush. But the state secretary of Belarus’ Security Council once admitted: each president has his own "red button", his own briefcase and his own nuclear suitcase. In other words, only the president of Belarus can use the weapons that are on the territory of Belarus. And only the president of Russia can use the weapons located in Russia.

"Look at how the military and political situation around us is unfolding. On the one hand, we see militarization of the West. Our closest neighbors - Poland and the Baltic countries (Lithuania and Latvia) are constantly increasing their defense budgets. And of course, we are concerned about the situation along our southern border.  This document will give us more tools to handle various risks, challenges and threats. In general, this document is not meant against anyone: it is designed to defend our states during turbulent times,” Deputy Chief of the Faculty of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Military Academy Andrei Bogodel emphasized.

What the security treaty between Belarus and Russia is about?

Let’s take a closer look at the treaty. It was signed for a period of 10 years, with automatic renewal for successive 10-year periods. What is this document about? The treaty has nine articles. According to Article 2, Belarus and Russia shall support each other by all methods and means agreed upon and permissible under international law and take appropriate actions in the political, military and other avenues in cases of encroachments on the security of any of the parties.

Such encroachments are understood to mean the purposeful creation or implementation of a threat to the sovereignty, independence and/or constitutional order of the parties, the integrity and inviolability of the territory and external border of the Union State by third states and their associations, international organizations, terrorist and extremist organizations and groups. Upon such a threat the parties shall hold joint consultations to develop response measures.

“The treaty itself serves as a deterrent. It prevents our opponents from taking reckless actions, attacking us or imposing restrictions. Nuclear weapons or 'Oreshnik' are part and parcel of this topic, but it is not the main focus. It is important to understand that any action against Belarus or Russia will be seen as an action against the Union State as a whole. Belarus and Russia will always be ready for an appropriate response,” Aleksandr Tishchenko noted.

The treaty guarantees that in case of aggression against either party, the other will promptly provide military, military-technical, and other forms of assistance upon request. The form of assistance is determined by the heads of state. Any actions taken in self-defense will be reported to the UN Security Council.

Under the treaty, Russia has the right to establish military and other facilities on Belarusian territory to prevent and repel aggression, as well as to deploy its military forces. Article 6 governs the use of nuclear weapons as a measure to respond to aggression. It is recognized as an extreme and forced measure, to be used in response to the use of nuclear weapons, weapons of mass destruction, or conventional weapons if they pose a critical threat to sovereignty or territorial integrity. The procedure for the use of nuclear weapons is established by the parties separately.