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22 October 2025, 12:48

Tusk's arithmetic. Where the Polish PM miscalculated and how he can fix it

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has clearly explained to Poles why the government is not delivering on its election promises. The Polish PM's arithmetic goes like this: if Poles wanted 100% of the promises to be fulfilled, they should have given Tusk's party 100% support in the 2023 elections. So, with support at 31%, voters get about a third of the promises delivered.

Tusk's unconventional approach, to put it mildly, was not appreciated. A scandal has erupted in Poland. Criticism poured in from both the prime minister's political opponents and his supporters. Meanwhile, experts predict that at this rate, Tusk will be forced to flee the country. But is the Polish prime minister really so wrong?  Does he have a chance to turn the situation to his advantage? Let's try to figure it out. 

A reminder, two years ago Tusk and his Civic Coalition campaigned on a highly ambitious program called "100 Specific Actions in 100 Days." Over the two years, roughly a third of the promised items have been implemented, and even that is a stretch. Here is what Tusk himself said on the matter recently.

 "Let me be clear: I did not receive 100% votes. Before the election on 15 October 2023, I stood right here in Piotrków and said: 'Vote for me, give me the power, and I will deliver on these 100 pledges.' Had I received 100% of the power, you would have seen 100% of the promises delivered. But the reality is that I received less than 31% of the vote, less than a third. So, I have delivered on a third of our program. That seems like a fair calculation,” he Tusk stated during his address in the Polish city of Piotrków Trybunalski.

 After all, such words could easily get a person fired without severance pay. An experienced politician, which Tusk undoubtedly is, should be well aware of this. It's unclear what the prime minister hoped to achieve by making such statements. One thing is clear: his words revealed not so much stupidity or cynicism, but rather a sense of powerlessness.

This sentiment was noticed by his political opponents. Jarosław Kaczyński, leader of the Law and Justice (PiS) party, wrote on X: “Tusk apparently considers his “100 proposals” agenda as closed, believing that with just 31% of the vote, he has fulfilled only a third of his promises. This is utterly detached from reality. We were already aware he holds the intelligence of Poles in contempt; now he appears to be having trouble with his own.”

Polish President Karol Nawrocki, who is aligned with PiS, stated that Poles were promised a great deal two years ago, and when promises go unfulfilled, society loses trust. “I could name at least a hundred specific reasons why citizens are losing faith that their vote matters,” the head of state emphasized.

In contrast, comments from Tusk’s supporters within the ruling coalition were more cautious and often anonymous. One MP from the ruling camp, in an interview with Wirtualna Polska, described Tusk’s speech as sounding “like desperation,” adding that “there was a sense of disappointment, a sense of misunderstanding. As if he wanted to, but couldn’t.”

Another coalition MP explained to the publication that the promises in Tusk’s election platform were concocted at the last minute, and as a result, the prime minister has become “hostage to these spontaneous promises.”

The criticism extends beyond broken promises to the government’s overall performance. Confederation MP Michał Wawer told Do Rzeczy: “It is very difficult to find anything that has improved the situation for Poland and Poles. Perhaps this coalition’s greatest success is that it has lasted for two years.” In his view, the parties forming the ruling coalition had “nothing in common initially except a thirst for power.” 

“I believe the success of these two years post-election lies in the fact that we have still, formally, not become a German state. In reality, it's been two years of chaos. Wherever you look, there's drama,” said Law and Justice (PiS) MP Radosław Fogiel. He noted that Poland's foreign policy is “catastrophic”, the economy and healthcare are in decline, and agriculture and food security are under threat. Even the defense sector is in trouble, despite massive financial injections.

One of Tusk's most vocal critics has been his predecessor as prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki. Recently, the former head of government reminded Tusk of the video featuring a pallet stacked with euro cash. Tusk used this video as a campaign ad before the parliamentary elections. At the time, as opposition leader, Tusk criticized the ruling PiS for its confrontation with Brussels, which had led the European Commission to freeze Poland's payments from EU funds. “It’s a 50 euro note. On this pallet, there are 18 million euros. Imagine 3,222 such pallets filling an entire stadium. Those pallets represent 58 billion euros. This is the money waiting for Poland and Poles in Europe,” Tusk had promised.

Morawiecki recorded his own video, asking Tusk where the money has gone. “Let’s do the math: a nearly 300 billion zloty budget deficit this year, over a trillion zloty added to the national debt in three years. Where did this money go? To scientific development? To the health of Poles? Perhaps to modern infrastructure? The Central Communication Port? The railways? Silence. Energy? Instead of building independence, we are importing more expensive goods. Today, you are spending everything just to survive in politics. Instead of opportunities for future generations, we are left with a ‘Euro-stack’ of debt,” Morawiecki's video states.

Here is another interesting statement from Mateusz Morawiecki: “I believe this government is subordinate not to Polish raison d'état, not to Polish interests. It is a government that drifts like a helpless leaf on a river and, either consciously or sometimes out of foolishness, or because it allows itself to be outmaneuvered, serves the interests of foreign states, primarily the wealthiest and strongest states of Western Europe, specifically Germany and France, but also the Benelux countries and Austria,” he said.
Well, one might say that Mateusz Morawiecki has continued the long-standing tradition of Polish politicians, who often  begin to speak the truth only after leaving office.

Meanwhile, Polish media have also adopted a pessimistic tone. “The past few months have been challenging for the prime minister. PiS politicians excluded him from negotiations between European leaders and Donald Trump regarding Ukraine. His coalition partner is secretly meeting with Jarosław Kaczyński. There is an ongoing struggle within the coalition over the positions of Sejm speaker and deputy prime minister, which could even lead to the government losing its majority in the Sejm,” the Onet news platform writes.

The outlet asks: what is happening to Tusk? “The prime minister has clearly changed since he first headed the government from 2007 to 2014. He has become weaker, lacking energy and ideas,” Onet notes.

Adding to the pessimism, Polish professor Antoni Dudek of the Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University in Warsaw told Wirtualna Polska that Tusk has found himself in an extremely difficult situation, and in two years the prime minister may even have to flee the country. “In two years, Tusk may end up being the biggest loser. Because when PiS comes to power, I do not rule out that he may have to leave Poland to avoid arrest,” Antoni Dudek said.

Last week, a survey by the Polish public opinion research institute showed that 52% of respondents want Tusk to step down. Support for his government stood at 34%, with 14% undecided.

A separate survey commissioned by RMF FM and carried out by Opinia24 found that 47% of respondents favor replacing Tusk with another politician.

From any perspective, the odds are against the Polish prime minister. Two years ago, he campaigned under the slogan of change, yet without any real action plan. Changes did happen, in a way: Brussels extended its sway over Warsaw and its internal affairs. Despite financial injections from the EU, the life of an average Pole didn’t get any better.

Could Tusk have acted differently? Even during his first term as prime minister in 2007-2014, he was known as a pragmatic, flexible, and shrewd politician. It is worth noting that in dealings with its neighbors, Tusk’s approach was based on mutually beneficial partnership rather than reckless ventures. “Bad relations with neighbors are not proof of strength and independence,” the prime minister stated.
It should be noted that the Polish economy, despite the global financial crisis, developed at a rapid pace during Tusk’s first premierships – largely due to a balance in relations with both the West and the East.

Tusk’s current policy is fundamentally different. And the prime minister himself appears changed. Today, he no longer seems like the strong, ambitious politician with his own strategy and vision for the future. The current Tusk comes across as a puppet on a string. On one side, there is Brussels, dictating its will to the prime minister. On the other side are the coalition partners with whom Tusk had to share power. In this context the prime minister’s words that voters did not give him full power make sense. Certainly, this is a rather clumsy explanation from Tusk, but the message is understandable. Especially now when the ruling coalition is in disarray and everyone is trying to grab their piece of the pie.

Caught between a rock and a hard place, the Polish prime minister is making more and more mistakes. The September blockade of the border with Belarus, which hurt Poland itself by undermining its reputation as a transit country, is a case in point. It is hard to imagine the former pragmatic Tusk making such a blunder.

The former Tusk would probably have had the foresight to seek compromises instead of confrontation with Belarus, as this is entirely in Poland’s interests. He would also have had the flexibility and forcefulness to defend these interests before Brussels. The former Tusk would obviously not have followed in the footsteps of the previous government, scoring political points from the migration crisis. He would have gained much more in the eyes of his people if he had accepted Minsk’s proposals to return to reasonable dialogue and resolve the situation at the border. 
During Tusk’s first terms as the prime minister, relations between Belarus and Poland had their share of difficulties. Still, Warsaw moved in line with the Western policy back then. But these relations allowed maintaining a balance of interests, supporting peace in the region, and acting for the benefit of our nations. And if the current Tusk does not want to destroy this balance once and for all and then flee the country, as his well-wishers predict, then it is time for the prime minister to remember his former self. Fortunately, there is still time for that. All that is needed is common sense and political will.

By Vita Khanatayeva,
BelTA
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