MINSK, 16 December (BelTA) – The uproar over Russia's possible preparation for an invasion in Ukraine is a well-planned propaganda campaign by NATO, Aleksei Avdonin, an analyst with the Belarusian Institute of Strategic Research (BISR) told the Respublika newspaper, BelTA informs.
“The events of late November - early December between Russia, the United States, the European Union and China suggest that the collective West is pursuing a new ‘justification' strategy with respect to Russia. The main objective of this policy is to weaken Russia's bargaining power both on domestic issues and in foreign policy. One should understand that the uproar over Russia's possible preparation for the invasion in Ukraine is NATO's well-planned propaganda campaign under the auspices of the United States. It seeks to create conditions for forcing Russia to make excuses all the time, because the one who makes excuses puts themselves in a deliberately weak position. Yet, what is the ultimate goal of this all? It is unlikely that Washington launched such a massive smear campaign against Moscow just to defend Ukraine. You always need to look for an economic rationale. And here it is,” the expert said.
According to Aleksei Avdonin, the early statements of the German leadership about suspending certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the event of Russia's ‘aggression' may clearly indicate that the purpose of such media maneuvers is to put an end to Russia's energy projects.
“The U.S. energy companies want to monopolize the European market. Keeping prices high is crucial for America's plans to make Europeans switch to liquefied gas. High market prices will help cover the relatively high cost of production, delivery and liquefaction of liquefied gas. The criticism of Russia for its expected ‘attack' on Ukraine is a tool to push the Europeans, and first of all the Germans, to drop Russian gas. At the same time, the situation with the Nord Stream 2 project and new sanctions against Russian companies and individuals put pressure on liberal circles in Russia and foment an internal conflict of elites over cooperation with China. The USA wants to use the liberals to make Russia move away from China and leave Beijing alone in the fight against the collective West,” the expert said.
Aleksei Avdonin emphasized that the Americans and the British are fully aware that they will not be able to indefinitely sell to international media a story about Russia ‘planning' but never undertaking military offensive against Ukraine. They need to materialize an image of ‘aggression'. That is, a provocation is needed on the borders of the so-called civilizational rift - these are the borders of the Union State, including Crimea.
“In October - November 2021, the collective West attempted to stage a provocation using migrants on the Polish border. It did not work. Aleksandr Lukashenko thwarted all their plans: he took the migrants away from the border, placed them in a shelter and sent some of them back home. Now Western ideologists want to try the Black Sea scenario. Stratfor, a geopolitical intelligence platform has previously published an analytical note, where it spelled out a future scenario of a civilizational conflict between Russia and the West over the Black Sea and Crimea. The West, and above all the British elite, had hopes that Maidan 2014 would help fulfill Britain's cherished dream of establishing control over Crimea. But Russia's smart and skillful actions allowed preventing the capture of the peninsula by an alien civilization,” the expert added.
According to Aleksei Avdonin, now Belarus, along with Crimea, is an outpost of the civilizational war. “At present, Western think tanks are working on scenarios for the escalation of tensions around Belarus in the run-up to, during and after the Constitutional referendum. They still cherish hopes that Belarus will steer from east to west overnight. For this to happen, they want to create a situation of uncertainty and increase tensions between Russia, the USA, Great Britain and China and turn it from a struggle of states into a struggle of civilizations,” the BISR analyst concluded.
