No trust, no business. What did Poland ultimately gain from border closure?
A month and a half
after the "brilliant" decision to close the Polish-Belarusian border,
Warsaw has a reason to celebrate. Polish media reported that Chinese exporters
have begun using alternative routes to deliver their goods to Europe, bypassing
Poland. As the saying goes, they got what they were asking for...Yet, for some reason, no joy or jubilation is evident
in Warsaw. The country's authorities maintain a tomb-like silence. They are
presumably preparing to bury Poland's transit industry, the investments thrown
to the wind, a hefty source of budget revenue, and thousands of jobs.
“Following the
blockade of the Belarusian border in September and the suspension of freight transit,
Chinese exporters have significantly reduced the volume of exports to the West
via Belarus and Poland. Everything indicates that they have decided to use
alternative transit routes,” Polish radio station RMF24 reported.
According to RMF24,
prior to the border blockade, an average of over 7,000 containers arrived in
Poland by rail within a two-week period.
Following the border’s reopening, fewer than 5,600 containers crossed in the first two weeks. The subsequent two-week period saw an even steeper decline to approximately 4,800 containers. Chinese goods accounted for nearly three-quarters of this volume.
“Following Warsaw’s decision, the Chinese changed their export routes to Europe,” notes RMF24. “They launched the ‘Polar Silk Road,’ which skirts Russia from the north. There’s also a rail route to St. Petersburg, and then across the Baltic.”
The Polish radio station has since come to an obvious conclusion: while Belarus is losing from the reduced transit, Poland is also losing out. It is surprising that it took our neighbors a month and a half to recognize this.
It should be noted that recklessness and a disregard for the obvious are chronic ailments of the Polish political establishment. The broader society is far more rational, but its voice cannot prevail with the government.
“The two-week border closure has been a serious shock to the Polish and European economies.”
Disruptions in transport along one of the EU's key trade corridors - the Silk Road - are leading to losses amounting to hundreds of millions of euros. The consequences are being felt not only by businesses but also by consumers and local communities,” Polish expert Izabella Tymińska wrote in her publication for Trans.INFO in September.
The Polish publication Business Times warned: “Poland is responsible for the safety and smoothness of freight transport between East and West. The closure of border crossings significantly disrupts the seamless operation of the New Silk Road, one of the pillars of EU-China trade cooperation, and has far-reaching economic consequences for transport companies, exporters, importers, and entire industries dependent on this trade route.”
“We were left alone, stoking a confrontation that nobody wanted. And although we demonstrated our strength for 13 days, the result of this demonstration is as symbolic as it is empty. Poland played a game whose outcome was decided not in Warsaw, but in Minsk and Beijing,” the publication Myśl Polska said.
An interesting article was published last week in China Daily. Its author is former Polish Finance Minister Grzegorz Kołodko, known as the key architect of Polish economic reforms. The article was headlined “Win-win globalization requires open borders”.
According to Grzegorz Kołodko, Warsaw’s decision to close the border was impulsive, unfounded, and largely political. “Political arguments clearly prevail over economic ones, both in Poland and across the EU,” Grzegorz Kołodko writes. “This is also reflected in the statement by Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski after his meeting with his Chinese counterpart that ‘security comes at a cost’. The problem is that the assumption that closing this section of the Polish eastern border increases security is, if not doubtful, at least highly questionable.”
The Polish expert believes that when one country closes its border with another, this fact has both geopolitical causes and serious consequences. “And although this border lies thousands of kilometers from China, it holds economic and political significance for the Middle Kingdom,” he concludes.
Well, no matter what manipulations Warsaw engages in, China sees and understands everything perfectly. The Chinese side is well aware that Poland, as Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko put it, is playing the role of a “Trojan horse” to serve the interests of other states. In this situation, there can be no talk of trust. Where there is no trust, there is no business.
Paradoxical as it may seem, perhaps the only place Warsaw could turn to for help now is Minsk. After all, the level of cooperation and trust between Belarus and China allows for finding solutions even in the most difficult situations. Furthermore, Minsk understands that living by the principle of “Belarus loses, Poland fails” leads nowhere. The only question is, does Warsaw understand this?
It should be noted that recklessness and a disregard for the obvious are chronic ailments of the Polish political establishment. The broader society is far more rational, but its voice cannot prevail with the government.
