MINSK, 18 March (BelTA) – The ongoing oil crisis was expectable. Experts predicted it in late 2019, Aleksei Avdonin, an analyst with the Belarusian Institute of Strategic Research (BISR), said during the meeting of the Expert Community project “Oil, coronavirus and new reality” at the BelTA press center on 18 March.
The expert noted that at the end of 2019 a number of Asian, American and European think tanks released statements warning about the looming decline in oil prices. “We were watching some trend taking shape,” Aleksei Avdonin said. In his words, starting from 2019 it was clear that the global economy in general, and China's economy in particular, were decelerating. This resulted in a lower demand for energy.
However, oil prices did not just fall, which was expected, but they nosedived following the coronavirus outbreak. In November 2019 the zero patient was detected in China. “The spike in the disease happened in January. Back then many think tanks predicted that the epidemic would deliver a severe blow on China, one of the world's biggest oil consumers. These reports had an impact on energy markets,” the analyst said.
According to Aleksei Avdonin, in order to build a better understanding of how the situation will evolve, it is necessary to put emotions aside, stay calm and refrain from accepting the assumptions made by various mass media outlets. It is important for governments to have their own expert pool able to see beyond the horizon and help take the right decisions.
Aleksandr Tishchenko, Press Secretary of the Belarusian state petrochemical concern Belneftekhim, gave his take on the developments on the oil market. “One simple thing catches the eye: prices are falling, but no major deals are struck. In other words, we do not see any clear developments on the market. Some oil stocks are tumbling, but no one has taken advantage of it yet. People have adopted a wait-and-see approach,” he said. Speaking about the reasons for the current situation, he noted that in order to understand them it is necessary to analyze who benefits from this crisis. “Some use it as an opportunity to reshape the playing field in the industry, create and fill new market niches,” Aleksandr Tishchenko said.
