At the heart of European security: Western analysts weigh in on Belarus, Lukashenko's strategy

Europe today is entering a phase of strategic realignment not seen since the end of the Cold War. The conflict in Ukraine, the shift in U.S. strategy on Europe, and numerous economic challenges... All of this demands a more mature and pragmatic approach from the European Union in its foreign policy. Above all, this applies to relations with its Eastern neighbors, without whom it is impossible to ensure stability and security in Europe.

What role does Minsk play in the current geopolitical reality, why does Europe so desperately need a stable Belarus, and what benefits do pragmatic relations with Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko bring to the EU? Experts from the International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES, Slovenia) explore these questions in their new study "Belarus in the new European security architecture.”

Reconciling idealism with realism. Why Europe needs a balance?

As the global balance of power shifts and new geopolitical challenges emerge, Europe needs a more flexible and realistic approach to international relations. Under these circumstances, according to IFIMES, historical rivalry must give way to constructive engagement.

“Along its eastern frontier [of the European Union] lie states governed by different political models, and prolonged isolation often deepens divisions rather than fostering stability, the experts believe.

Modern security strategy must therefore reconcile idealism with realism. “This entails strengthening Europe’s defense autonomy while actively engaging neighboring states of strategic relevance, institutional stability, and the capacity for swift decision-making,’ the paper reads.

In this setting, countries such as Belarus, Serbia and Moldova could emerge as key partners whose integration into the wider security framework would bolster Europe’s resilience and enable the creation of functional security zones.

“A pragmatic approach requires coordination and crisis communication, clear security mechanisms, economic and strategic incentives for stability, as well as the integration of states into a common security framework. Such a policy does not compromise European values; rather, it applies them within a realistic context, ensuring that continental security remains sustainable and predictable.

“Europe today must strike a balance between its principles and geopolitical realities. Only by combining vision with pragmatism can it construct a stable, resilient and coherent security architecture capable of meeting new challenges and risks facing the continent,” write experts from IFIMES.

Key security actor. What is Belarus’ role?

The war in Ukraine has laid bare the vulnerabilities of the current security architecture, underscoring the urgent need for Europe to develop its own mechanisms for stability. In such an environment, Europe must take an active role in shaping its own security future, analysts from IFIMES believe.

“This transformation also requires a re-evaluation of relations with countries long perceived solely through the lens of ideological differences. Belarus is one such case. Long a symbol of division between the Western and post-Soviet spheres, it is now acquiring a new dimension within the broader security context. Its geographical position, institutional continuity and capacity to preserve internal stability give it a distinct strategic weight,” the study says.

Belarus occupies an exceptionally strategic position at the heart of Europe. It borders NATO members Lithuania and Latvia to the north, Poland to the west, Ukraine to the south and Russia to the east. This location makes the Minsk region a natural bridge between the European continent and the eastern space, enabling control over vital transport and communication corridors linking Europe with Asia.

“For this reason, Belarus is becoming a pivotal actor in shaping the continent’s evolving security architecture, with undeniable strategic weight,” IFIMES points out.

At a time when instability has become a global constant, predictability is a prized commodity. “For that very reason, considering Belarus’s role in the new European security architecture is not a matter of ideology but of geopolitical reality. The new framework for stability will not be constructed solely on inherited models, but on a combination of responsibility, pragmatism and the considered engagement of all relevant actors across the continent,” experts say.

Strategic bridge between West and East: Why Lukashenko’s policy matters for the EU?

Analysts at IFIMES pay particular attention to the policy of President Aleksandr Lukashenko, his relations with major global powers (the United States, Russia, and China), and his strategic vision.

The study noted that Aleksandr Lukashenko has demonstrated an ability to maintain the stability and resilience of the state. “Under his leadership, Belarus operates as a crucial link between major global powers – the United States, Russia and China. The personal rapport and mutual respect he has cultivated with the leaders of these countries grant Minsk direct influence over international security initiatives and strategic processes, positioning the country as a stable and predictable actor in regional dialogues,” IFIMES stated.

In this context, establishing communication channels with Belarus is becoming a strategic imperative for the European Union. “Bringing Minsk into the security architecture allows for the creation of security zones, preventive mechanisms and coordinated management of transport and communication corridors. Stability under Lukashenko’s leadership offers the EU the opportunity to build a continental security framework based on realistic principles, where interests and stability prevail over ideological differences,” the authors argued.

IFIMES experts are convinced that, thanks to Lukashenko’s decisive and predictable policy, Belarus can be viewed as a reliable partner within Europe’s security architecture. The country positions itself as a central pillar connecting West and East and serving as a platform for integrating regional actors into a unified security system.

“Drawing on his strategic vision and diplomatic ties, Lukashenko enables Europe to transcend historical barriers, build bridges and incorporate key regional partners into a functional and stable continental security architecture. Belarus is asserting itself as a small yet geopolitically significant power. Its capacity for pragmatic cooperation and strategic judgement places it at the heart of the European and global security network, where predictability, stability and clearly defined interests create a reliable foundation for peace and coordinated regional security,” IFIMES concluded.

Vita Khanatayeva,

BelTA.