Russian scientists introduce advanced model to forecast outburst floods

MOSCOW, 27 April (BelTA - TV BRICS) - Hydrologists at Saint Petersburg State University, a partner of TV BRICS, have developed a specialised programme designed to calculate the characteristics of outburst floods. The solution enables forecasting of potential breaches in earthen dams that retain reservoirs, as well as sudden releases of water from glacial lakes confined by moraine barriers, offering valuable support for emergency preparedness, reports the university's website.

Outburst floods from natural and artificial water bodies are widely recognised as powerful natural processes, particularly in mountainous regions. Glacial lakes, influenced by temperature fluctuations or intense precipitation, can rapidly discharge large volumes of water, while reservoirs may also experience similar events under extreme weather conditions. These dynamics highlight the importance of reliable predictive tools for safeguarding infrastructure and populations.

The newly developed system provides detailed modelling of possible dam failures by analysing parameters such as dam dimensions, elevation relative to the water body, and soil composition.

According to project leader Galina Pryakhina, Candidate of Geographical Sciences and Acting Head of the Department of Land Hydrology, the programme also accounts for the heterogeneity of soils and incorporates two principal failure mechanisms: overtopping and internal erosion.

Unlike a number of existing methodologies, the model integrates complex physical characteristics of dam materials, improving the accuracy of projections. It is particularly suited to remote mountainous areas where hydrological monitoring stations are limited, relying instead on expedition data and satellite imagery. The system has already been tested on several lakes with recorded outburst events, including Bashkara in the Caucasus, Nurgan in Mongolia, and Lake Maashey in Altai.

Looking ahead, researchers plan to expand the programme’s functionality by incorporating water inflow calculations, enabling more comprehensive modelling of lake systems under changing environmental conditions.