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17 February 2026, 18:50

Expert opines on the future of nuclear arsenals of Russia, USA, China in post New START era

MINSK, 17 February (BelTA) - Head of the Russian Center for Military and Political Conflict Studies Andrei Klintsevich shared his perspectives on what awaits the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which has expired, and which side would benefit more from extending this document in a recent episode of the V Teme [On Point] project on BelTA’s YouTube channel.

"The Americans have the so-called strategic command, which determines strategic objectives. They reported to Trump that the USA is losing to Russia and, most likely, China in terms of the quality of strategic weapons. U.S. silo-based and sea-based missiles were produced in the 1970s. Yes, their service lives are extended and modernization is carried out, but the design is still outdated. Inside, there are many mechanical parts," Andrei Klintsevich said.

According to him, this poses a serious problem because any of these parts represents a so-called failure point and can jam. “The former British defense minister experienced this firsthand when the British launched an U.S. missile without a warhead from a submarine. It took off and fell near the destroyer from which they were observing [the launch], nearly killing them,” the expert cited one example.

Andrei Klintsevich also drew attention to the quantitative indicator, in which the United States is losing to Russia, and in the future may also fall behind China. He noted that the number of warheads in China could reach 1,000 by 2030, and 1,500 by 2035. “The Americans have launched four costly projects at once - a complete overhaul of their entire [nuclear] triad. This includes new submarines, new silo-based missiles, and new B-21 Raider aircraft,” the expert emphasized.

Andrei Klintsevich described the logic of the American leadership as follows: if Beijing is not planning to limit its arms, then the United States should be prepared for a war with Russia and China simultaneously. Thus, the United States would have to double the number of its nuclear warheads, which would also be twice the number prescribed by the New START treaty.

"In 2026, three B-21 Raider aircraft will enter service, and the number of launchers is also limited and cannot exceed 700. Then the Americans would have to take some off alert duty, just as the Russians did. Trump says: 'Why? Let's withdraw from the New START treaty and start addressing two questions at once.' They will begin introducing new systems without decommissioning old ones, meaning they will increase them both qualitatively and quantitatively. And then [according to the logic of U.S. President Donald Trump] the Americans will dominate,” Andrei Klintsevich noted.

Thus, the military expert believes, the United States will begin a serious arms race. “The Americans want to draw China, a country with which we are not bound by any mutual assistance treaties, into this treaty. Then so should France and the UK with their 600 warheads that are already within the U.S. coordinate system. So questions are many,” he noted.
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