MINSK, 9 August (BelTA) – The constitutional system in Belarus will endure but people, who disagree with it, will stage protests, BelTA learned from Director of the information and awareness-raising institution On-Trend Concept, political analyst Aleksandr Shpakovsky.
The expert said: “I expect Aleksandr Lukashenko to win the presidential election in the first round but those who disagree with the result will take to the streets. However, the government has sufficient resources to enforce law and order. I hope we will be able to avoid serious clashes and will keep people within legal boundaries. Because on the one hand, they have the right to protest, on the other hand, they are not allowed to break the law.”
Aleksandr Shpakovsky is convinced that the overthrow of the constitutional system is the maximum task of the opposition during the current election campaign. “All the traits of a color revolution and technologies. It is not only my opinion but the opinion of State Secretary of the Security Council Andrei Ravkov,” he added. “To create a lengthy political crisis in the country is the minimum task. They are going to try to stage these protests even after the election.”
The expert expects that all kinds of unauthorized street protests will be staged in Minsk and the regions in the evening after the election, the next day and possibly the day after the next one. Their sustainability will depend on several actors: political wisdom of the Belarusian nation, the economic situation in the country, and effective work of law enforcement agencies, which cannot resort to excessive violence yet have to protect the law and the people. “The worsening economic situation will result in a stronger protest mood. This is why a lot depends on the government. And the period will be complicated: the coronacrisis – economic consequences of the pandemic – are expected to peak in the world in October-November. The Belarusian export-oriented economy will feel these factors in full measure although we didn't shut down manufacturing enterprises,” Aleksandr Shpakovsky said.
The expert also expressed personal concerns about the fate of many young people, whose infantilism makes them susceptible to the influence of political technologies used by moderators of various Telegram channels. These young Belarusians take to the streets and break the law. They receive serious punishments in line with the Criminal Code while “puppet masters” tick off the organization of yet another mass protest.
