02 March 2026, 18:48

Israel and US open Pandora's box, Iran responds with jihad. Key takeaways on Middle East crisis

For the third day, U.S. and Israeli military forces continue to bomb Iran. Tehran is striking back, including against American bases in Middle Eastern countries. The death toll is already in the hundreds, and the escalation is only intensifying. Experts do not rule out that the conflict will expand involving U.S. allies.

What is happening now in Iran, what are the U.S. and Israel aiming for, how is Tehran responding, and what can be expected in the near future - negotiations or further escalation? We detail this in a BelTA review.

What we know about the operation against Iran

On the morning of 28 February, Israel and the United States launched an attack on Iran. The Israeli operation is named “Lion's Roar” and the American operation is called “Epic Fury”.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the operation is targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, with the goal of preventing Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Trump promised to raze Iran’s missile industry and destroy the country’s naval forces. The U.S. president also claimed that Iranian ballistic missiles pose a threat to American bases in the Middle East, European allies, and could soon be capable of reaching the United States.

“It has always been the policy of the United States, in particular my administration, that this terrorist regime can never have a nuclear weapon. I'll say it again, they can never have a nuclear weapon,” Trump stated. “Our objective is to defend the American people,” the U.S. president added.

Meanwhile, the Israeli side described the operation against Iran as a "preemptive strike to eliminate a threat." Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the actions against Iran are aimed at eliminating an existential threat to the United States and Israel.

During the operation against Iran, massive strikes were carried out from air and sea on civilian and military facilities (command posts, air defense systems, military airfields) and on government buildings. The presidential complex in Tehran and the home of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were subjected to bombing.

According to U.S. media, the United States deployed its space forces, navy, and air force. On the Israeli side, over 200 aircraft are involved in the operation. Simultaneously with the bombings, Iran was subjected to a large-scale cyberattack.

How Iran responded

Shortly after the bombing began, Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs appealed to UN member states, calling on them to condemn the aggression by the United States and Israel, which it stated had grossly violated the country’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. The ministry also declared that the Iranian army is ready to defend its land and will make the US and Israel answer for their aggression.

Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced a large-scale retaliatory operation named True Promise 4. Iranian Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi declared a jihad (holy war) against the United States and Israel.

During the first wave of attacks, Iran launched approximately 1,200 missiles at the enemy, including Fattah hypersonic missiles. Strikes were carried out on Israeli territory, and on U.S. military bases in Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. The Iranian side declared all American bases in the Middle East as legitimate targets.

“Iran cannot reach American soil, so we have no choice but to attack any bases under U.S. jurisdiction," the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated.

Later, new waves of attacks followed against Israel and U.S. bases. Iran's Armed Forces also launched missile strikes on enemy vessels in the northern Indian Ocean and struck three tankers belonging to the US and UK in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, Iranian forces carried out a drone strike on an Amazon Web Services data center and a facility belonging to the French National Navy in the UAE.

One of the most massive strikes hit the U.S. military base in Bahrain. According to Iranian media, the base was destroyed. The U.S. consulate in Erbil, Iraq, was also destroyed.

There have also been reports of a strike on Netanyahu's office and on the Israeli Air Force commander. The Israeli side has denied these reports.

What we know about the casualties

The Iranian side reported that since 28 February, a total of over 550 Iranians have been killed as a result of the strikes. ‘For the time being, 131 municipal districts have been attacked, resulting in, unfortunately, the deaths of 555 compatriots,” a statement from the Iranian Red Crescent said.

According to rescuers, operations to clear debris, evacuate the injured, and provide medical assistance are continuing. The Red Crescent has announced the full readiness of humanitarian forces across the country. Over 100,000 rescuers are deployed in the affected areas, and a network of nearly 4 million volunteers has been placed on high alert.

Debris clearance is ongoing in Minab, where a girls’ elementary school was hit by an airstrike. As a result of the tragedy, 165 people - students and staff of the institution - were killed.

As a result of the attacks by Israel and the US, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several key figures in Iran's political and military leadership have been killed. It is reported that Khamenei was killed directly at his workplace. The Iranian side has also confirmed the deaths of the IRGC Commander-in-Chief, the Chief of the General Staff of the Army, the Minister of Defense, the Secretary of the Defense Council, and the Iran police intelligence chief.

The transitional council has been formed to govern the country until a new supreme leader is elected.

As stated in a letter from Iran’s Minister of Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi addressed to UN Secretary General António Guterres and members of the UN Security Council, the killing of Khamenei constitutes a direct assault by Israel and the United States on the most fundamental principles of international law. “The deliberate targeting of the highest official of the Islamic Republic of Iran represents a grave and unprecedented violation of the most fundamental norms governing relations among states. It recklessly opens a dangerous Pandora’s box, eroding the bedrock of sovereign equality and the stability of the international system,” the text of the letter quoted by TASS reads.

Meanwhile, the United States reports the death of at least three U.S. service members. However, citing Pentagon forecasts, the US president warned that the number of casualties could be significantly higher.

The IRGC, for its part, reports the deaths of the U.S. soldiers. According to its information, an Iranian strike on a U.S. military deployment in Bahrain left around 560 U.S. soldiers killed or injured.

A number of strikes were carried out on Israeli cities. For instance, according to media reports, eight people were killed and 28 wounded after a missile strike in the city of Beit Shemesh.

There are also dead and injured in other countries of the region where the U.S. military bases targeted by Iranian forces are located. According to data as of 1 March, at least three people were killed and 58 wounded in the UAE as a result of Iranian strikes. Kuwaiti authorities also reported casualties.

How long will the operation against Iran last?

Initially, the Israeli side reported that Israel was preparing for four days of strikes on Iran. It was specified that this would be the first stage of the confrontation. Meanwhile, the Israeli authorities have already extended the state of emergency, introduced in the country after the start of the operation against Iran, until 12 March.

Citing sources, the U.S. media wrote that the USA had planned a series of escalating strikes on Iran, each of which would last from one to two days.

The U.S. president initially stated that the bombing of Iran would last the whole week. Later, he said that the operation against Iran could take about four to five weeks. According to him, the U.S. military operation against Iran is proceeding “ahead of schedule” and will continue until all goals are achieved.

“Combat operations continue at this time in full force, and they will continue until all of our objectives are achieved,” a statement from the U.S. leader posted on Truth Social reads. “We have very strong objectives.”

Trump also stated that Iran’s military must surrender or die.

Meanwhile, Tehran is determined to continue military action. The country’s Foreign Ministry stated that Iran is in a state of “full-scale war” and will take revenge on the USA and Israel for the killing of their leader.

What are the USA and Israel hoping to achieve?

The statements by Trump and Netanyahu indicate that the USA and Israel are seeking regime change in Iran, relying on internal instability within Iranian society.

Even at the beginning of the operation, Trump appealed to the Iranian opposition, calling the bombing of the country a once-in-a-generation chance for the Iranian people. “The hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations,” the U.S. president stated.

In an interview with The New York Times, Trump said he has “three very good” candidates for the post of future leader of Iran. He did not tell the names.

It is worth noting that one of the possible contenders for the place of the Iranian leader Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah of Iran, supported the bombing of his country, calling what is happening a “humanitarian intervention.”

The Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar also stated that Israel aims for a change of power in Iran. “The goal of the war is to remove the existential threats facing the State of Israel in the long term. As long as the current regime exists in Iran, this objective cannot be achieved,”the diplomat said.

Will there be a ground operation?

It is obvious that the use of ground troops is not part of the U.S. plans. Such an operation could continue for years, lead to the deaths of hundreds, if not thousands, of the U.S. soldiers, and its outcome would be difficult to predict. The experience of the Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan campaigns is instructive.

Presumably, the USA expected that in the situation with Iran, the set goals could be achieved quickly enough: to eliminate the leader, remove key figures in the military leadership, “take down” infrastructure with a massive cyberattack, disorient the vertical chain of command, sow panic in society, and allow destructive forces inside Iran to finish the job.

However, Iran lived for years in anticipation of war and has repeatedly repelled strikes on its territory. And now, amidst the death of its leader, Tehran has launched a massive counterattack. Furthermore, the reaction of Iranian society, including the mass demonstrations held in the country in memory of Khamenei, points to internal consolidation in the face of a common threat.

According to information from The Washington Post, Iran’s military response caused panic in the Pentagon. U.S. military circles are concerned that the conflict could spiral out of control. “The mood here is tense and paranoid,” a source for the publication said.

Meanwhile, Republican Tom Cotton, who heads the Senate Intelligence Committee, confirmed that the Trump administration is not planning ground operations in Iran. According to him, U.S. ground operations in Iran are possible only to rescue pilots of downed aircraft. “But, barring that kind of unusual circumstance, Margaret, the president has no plan for any kind of large-scale ground force inside of Iran,” Cotton said.

Are the parties ready for negotiations?

Negotiations between Iran and the USA were underway even before the current escalation. At the same time, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Oman Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, who acted as an intermediary between Tehran and Washington, informed about the positive results of the parties’ negotiations on the nuclear dossier a day before the bombing began.

However, Trump’s opinion on this matter was different. He stated that Iran had not given the USA the right answer to Washington’s demands. “We are not satisfied with the negotiations. They just don’t want to say the key words: we will not have nuclear weapons... They want to enrich a little. You don’t need enrichment when you have so much oil. So I’m not happy with the negotiations,” the U.S. president said on the eve of the bombings.

A little later, on 28 February Trump expressed the opinion that it would be easier for the United States to reach agreements with Tehran after striking Iran. “Now it’s much easier to achieve this than it was a day ago,” he said.

A day later, on 1 March Trump said that Iran’s new leadership had allegedly initiated talks with Washington. “They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk... They should have done this earlier. They should have taken this very practical and easy step much earlier. They waited too long,” Trump said.

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs commented on Trump’s statement. The head of the Islamic republic’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi said that the question about the possibility of resuming negotiations between the United States and Iran should be addressed to Washington. “We have negotiated with the United States twice in the last 12 months, and in both cases they attacked us in the middle of the negotiations. This was an extremely bitter experience for us,” TASS quoted the diplomat as saying.

Meanwhile, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani announced that his country would not negotiate with the United States. “We will not negotiate with the United States,” the politician said on X. He made this comment in response to a report in The Wall Street Journal, which claimed that Ali Larijani had conveyed an initiative to resume diplomatic consultations with Washington via Oman.

Is an escalation of the conflict in order?

Iran’s strikes on U.S. military bases have already provoked a negative reaction from the countries where these bases are located. It was noted that the strikes caused destruction and loss of life.

The UAE Ministry of Defense stated that Abu Dhabi reserves the right to retaliate against Iran. There have been no strikes yet, but the UAE has decided to close its embassy in Tehran and recall its ambassador.

Meanwhile, TASS cites an Iranian source as saying that the United States is trying to persuade the rulers of Middle Eastern countries to start a direct war with Iran. “The expansion of Iranian operations in the region and the reduction of U.S. defense capabilities under CENTCOM have ushered in a new phase of psychological operations,” the source told the agency. “This command has been sharply criticized after the defeat of several American fighter jets, an attack on the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, and the expansion of Iranian operations. At this stage CENTCOM’s mission is to convince the rulers of these countries to start a direct war with Iran.”

Meanwhile, Israel has already launched an operation against the military forces of the Shiite organization Hezbollah in Lebanon. On the night of 2 March Israel came under fire from Lebanon. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the attack. The organization said the attack on Israel was in response to the murder of Khamenei. After that, the Israeli Air Force began launching massive strikes on Lebanon.

The United States and its European allies — France, Germany, and the United Kingdom — have expressed their support. “We call on Iran to immediately cease its reckless attacks. We will take the necessary measures to protect our interests and interests of our allies in the region,” the three European powers said in a statement.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that London had allowed the USA to use UK military bases to launch strikes on missile warehouses in Iran. However, the UK itself did not join the operation against Iran.

Russian Ambassador to Israel Anatoly Viktorov pointed out in an interview with Vesti that the entire Middle East region is on the brink of a major war.

“Right now, the entire region is on the brink of a major war, and not just the region. In Lebanon the Israeli authorities have not stopped their operations, and now we have a situation where any excuse can be used or could actually pose a threat to Israel’s security,” the diplomat said.

He noted that, according to Russia’s position, hostilities must be stopped immediately and the situation must be returned to the political and diplomatic track.

Belarus has also called for preventing further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement calling for a return to resolving differences through political and diplomatic means.

“We observe with concern the escalation of the situation between Israel and Iran, which has also affected friendly countries in the Gulf. We call on the countries involved in the exchange of blows to refrain from dangerous confrontation and return to resolving all differences through political and diplomatic means,” the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.

Is there a nuclear threat?

The Iranian city of Bushehr where an operational nuclear power plant is located has been hit twice by missile strikes in recent days. According to local authorities, the nuclear power plant was not damaged.

Apart from that, a nuclear facility in Natanz was attacked during the U.S. and Israeli strikes. There have been no reports of a possible radiation leak.

However, the risk of a nuclear disaster remains high amid the ongoing air strikes. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi drew attention to the situation during a special session of the agency's Board of Governors, which had been requested by Russia in connection with the strikes on the Islamic republic. He called on all parties to the conflict to exercise maximum restraint and prevent further escalation.

“In accordance with the objectives of the IAEA, as enshrined in its Statute, I call on all parties to exercise maximum restraint to avoid further escalation. Let me remind you once again of previous resolutions stating that armed attacks on nuclear facilities are unacceptable, as they could lead to the release of radioactive substances with serious consequences both within and beyond the borders of the state that has been attacked,” TASS quoted Rafael Grossi as saying.

Image credit: BelTA, media.az, Tasnim, Anadolu, AP, Reuters