MINSK, 6 December (BelTA) – The World Bank forecasts Belarus' GDP growth at 2.1% in 2018, World Bank economist Marina Sidorenko told the media during the presentation of the World Bank Economic Update on Belarus on 6 December, BelTA has learned.
“Despite the country's cyclical economic expansion in 2017, we expect the growth to remain moderate next year, at 2.1%,” the World Bank representative explained. The country's GDP growth is expected to make 1.8% in 2017.
Marina Sidorenko told the media about the risks that might worsen the situation in Belarus. “First of all, cost-intensive refinancing is needed to pay back foreign debts. Secondly, the country remains highly vulnerable to the volatility of crude oil supplies from Russia and the fluctuations in global prices for raw materials. Changes in any of these aspects may create difficulties with receiving additional currency receipts necessary for honoring the public debt,” she stressed.
According to the World Bank economist, the Belarusian government has recently pursued a policy aimed at supporting the private sector growth, however, the effect of such policy will be visible in the medium term.
Marina Sidorenko stated that in January-October 2017 the GDP expanded by 2%. “Russia's moderate economic growth and grwoing prices for raw materials boosted commodity exports and revitalized the domestic business activity, especially in the manufacturing industry. The sector of services also gained momentum,” she noted.
The expert added that the growth in real wages halted the falling incomes. In January-September 2017, real incomes increased by 0.4%.
"The government has taken a set of measures to ease the monetary policy as the inflation pressure is stabilizing. The stringent monetary and fiscal policies in recent years have helped the country reach single-digit inflation, which is the record low in two decades. The National Bank lowered the main interest rate almost on a monthly basis to the current 11%. This meant that the nominal interest rates on national-currency loans were halved,” said the World Bank economist. She added that the elevated levels of dollarization remain in place, which continues to limit the effectiveness of monetary policy measures.
