MINSK, 26 June (BelTA) – The Belarusian government forecasts the GDP growth at 1.1% in 2018, First Vice Premier Vasily Matyushevsky said when speaking at the joint session of the Belarusian parliament on 26 June, BelTA has learned.
According to Vasily Matyushevsky, the government is currently working on the forecast of the country's socio-economic development in 2018 and on the fundamental parameters by 2020. During the meeting on 13 June the government reviewed the draft concept of the forecast. The concept provides for two scenarios: a targeted one (for the forecast) and a conservative one (for the budget).
The first vice premier noted that the conservative scenario has its own features. “We are aware of the errors of being ‘overoptimistic'. Therefore we are into more reserved estimates of the development of the national economy and external markets,” he explained.
The conservative scenario provides for the GDP growth at 1.1% in 2018, said Vasily Matyushevsky. “It takes into account ‘the effect of increasing base' in the industry by the end of last year and the halt in the potassium industry, their influence on the wholesale, the situation in the construction industry,” he said.
This scenario provides for the URALS oil at $40 in 2018, the Russian ruble at 70 against the U.S. dollar, and a 1.5% growth of the Russian economy. “These parameters are similar to those envisaged in the budget scenario of Russia,” said Vasily Matyushevsky.
The target-oriented scenario is aimed at the implementation of the main parameters of the five-year action plan. “This, in turn, envisages the implementation of the economic policy measures that will create stimuli for accelerating the economic growth,” the first vice premier added.
